Tag Archives: AUD
The Week Ahead in FX
In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Japan and the BoC. China is to release data on fourth quarter growth as well as a closely watched report on manufacturing activity.
Weekly CFTC Trader Positioning Data
• Shifting investor sentiment away from the European currencies is the key theme this week, as the CHF position has shifted to net short—typically a bearish signal—alongside a continued modera-tion in
Labour Force – December 2013
December’s fall of 22.6k jobs missed market expectations which centred on a 10.k increase {CBA(f) +11.1k}.
Building Activity – QIII 2013
The upswing in building activity is part of the “transition” to more growth from the non-mining sectors. Low interest ratesettings provide the required background and it will be assisted with further lifts in business and consumer confidence.
CPI Preview – QIV 2013
The Australian economy ended 2013 running at a below-trend pace.And the unemployment rate ended the year higher than at the start.Wages growth slowed. These trends stand behind the current lowinflation environment.
AUD: Interest rate differentials, or just interest rates?
Interest rate differentials are widely seen as an important driver of currencypairs. By way of example, AUD/USD moved in line with short-end interest ratedifferentials from mid-2011 to around mid-2012 (see Figure 1).
Australia in 2014 – risks & issues
A degree of caution remains evident in forecasts for 2014. The general theme across a range of forecasters is that the Australian economy will continue to run a little below trend.
Housing Finance – November 2013
Housing-related lending continues to rise, with loans to investors and owner-occupiers on a solid uptrend. Owneroccupiedlending is now 30% higher (by value) than a year ago and investor lending is up by 34%.
Australian Markets Weekly – Labour market the key to 2014 RBA policy
RBA cash rate expectations for Dec-2014 range from 2.0% to 3.5%. The RBA is comfortably on hold and still believes that policy is stimulatory enough to support activity.
The Week Ahead in FX
In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching U.S. data on retail sales, inflation and consumer sentiment, as well as speeches by two Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday. U.K. data on retail sales and inflation will also be in focus.
Weekly CFTC Trader Positioning Data
Investors pared exposure to European currencies heading into key US & ECB events, reducing net long positions in EUR, GBP and CHF. Meanwhile, JPY, CAD and AUD continue to be held net short.
Retail Trade – November 2013
Retail trade rose by a strong 0.7% in November, which bettered market expectations that were centred on a rise of 0.4%{CBA(f) 0.3%}. The news is good.