Tag Archives: AUD
Activity in the housing sector remains robust
The moderation in building approvals over December was a little larger than market expectations centred on a fall of 0.5%(CBA (f): 0.0%). Approvals have been tracking at around record levels for the past three months.
Australian Markets Weekly – Australian data continues to improve
This past week has seen yet more key indicators, NABBusiness Conditions – a coincident indicator – and RBAcredit turn higher, more evidence the economy has shownmore resilience into year end.
The Week Ahead in FX
In the week ahead, investors will be keenly anticipating Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for January after December’s report showed that the economy added far fewer jobs than expected.
Weekly CFTC Trader Positioning Data
• Risk aversion on the back of EM jitters drove a significant shift in currency positions this week. Investors shifts included short covering in JPY with increased long allocation to gold, EUR and GBP;
Producer Price Index – QIV 2013, Credit – December 2013
The PPI measures upstream inflationary pressures (predominantly for goods) faced by producers in the commodities,intermediate and finished product stages.
International Trade Prices – QIV 2013
Both export prices and import prices fell by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively over QIV. The market was anticipating a smallerfall in export prices of 0.2%.and a solid lift in import prices of 2.0%.
Weekly Commentary
The recent run of strong economic data has solidified thecase for higher interest rates this year; now it’s the tacticalconsiderations around how to kick off that process thatare coming to the fore.
The Week Ahead in FX
In the week ahead, Wednesday’s outcome of the Federal Reserve’s monthly meeting will be in focus amid expectations for a reduction to USD65 billion from the current USD75 billion in the bank’s stimulus program.
Buyout blitz
This year could witness the return of M&A mania. Appetites were whetted bylast week’s ‘Merger Monday’, which saw circa USD 100bn of announced deals.
Consumer Sentiment – January 2014
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell in January to a six-month low of 103.3. Sentiment hasdeclined over the past two months,
CPI – QIV 2013 – Inflation transition proving elusive
The QIV CPI rose by 0.8%, well above market expectations (Mkt and CBA: +0.4%). The main “surprises” were a weatherrelatedspike in fruit & veg prices and an unusually large rise in holiday travel & accommodation costs.
Australian Markets Weekly – Little inflation risk on the horizon
The Q4 CPI on Wednesday is expected to again show modest price pressures, with the underlying rate forecast to rise 0.6% (2.3%yoy) and the headline rate 0.5% (2.4%yoy).