Forex Charts
FX Daily
The main focus will be flash estimates for PMI in the euro area starting with Franceand Germany this morning. We expect the euro-area composite PMI to have movedbroadly sideways in February from the solid 54 level in January.
USDJPY – 102.86 continues to act as important pivot; 102.86/101.40 range
The 102.86 zone thwarted our call for a rally to the mid 103’s; this has now acted as important support & resistance. Now any break through that level can be viewed as a decisive signal of further gains to come.
USDCAD – above 1.0965 channel/pivot signals move to mid 1.12’s
We have been waiting for support to take hold above the 1.0925 Fibonacci retracement zone. This support level can mark the low for wave-(b) in a large sideways consolidation.
FX Daily
In the US the Fed will release minutes from the 28-29 January FOMC meeting.The speeches ahead of the meeting suggest relatively strong consensus on continuingthe tapering course but
FX Daily
In the data calendar the main events are the ZEW indicator in Germany, CPI inthe UK and the NAHB housing market index and Empire.
FX Daily
The leader of Italy’s centre-left Democratic Party, Matteo Renzi, is expected tobe formally handed the job of forming a new government,
EURUSD – nearing critical resistance at 1.3739; support is 1.3683
The reversal at 1.39 was key because it represented a failure at the 2008 downtrend, it also produced a bull trap above Oct & Dec highs.
FX Daily
Q4 GDP for the euro area as a whole and several euro area countries is due forrelease today. Based on our ‘hard data’ model we look for a rise in euro-area GDP of0.3% q/q.
USDCAD – at lower end of 1.0925/1.1250 range-bound correction
The corrective rally to THE 1.1224 high along with the lack of momentum divergence indicates that this range from 1/23 is just a large correction in the long-term uptrend.
AUDUSD – change in trend underway as a-b-c correction completes
Aussie satisfied our call for a sharp wave-c impulse higher. This rally completed an a-b-c correction and sets the stage for a resumption of the late ‘13 downtrend.
USDJPY – still need through 102.86 to confirm near-term bullishness
Yesterday we focused on the possibility of a developing bullish triangle and the need for a break through 102.86 to promote this outlook;
FX Daily
US retail sales likely got off to a soft start in January following a strong finish to2013. As consensus we look for 0.0% m/m in total retail sales and 0.1% m/m in retailsales ex autos and gasoline.