Q4 GDP for the euro area as a whole and several euro area countries is due forrelease today. Based on our ‘hard data’ model we look for a rise in euro-area GDP of0.3% q/q. Consensus is split with about 50-50 saying 0.2% and 0.3%. Ahead of theeuro-area release GDP for Germany and France is due. We look for German GDP torise 0.3% q/q for the second quarter in a row and French GDP to rise 0.2% q/q.
US industrial production for January is also due for release and we see downsiderisk to this number based on the sharp decline in ISM manufacturing in January. Thepoor retail sales out yesterday also suggest that demand was weak in January. Welook for a rise of 0.1% m/m versus consensus 0.3% m/m.
In the US we are also due preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidencefor February. We expect a small decline from 81.2 to 80.6 (consensus 80.5).
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Danske Bank