In the US the Fed will release minutes from the 28-29 January FOMC meeting.The speeches ahead of the meeting suggest relatively strong consensus on continuingthe tapering course but data since the meeting have been weak and it has becomemore difficult to shrug off the soft data as just weather-related and temporary. Hence,it will be interesting to see if there are signs of a shift in sentiment in FOMC-memberspeeches in the coming weeks. Bullard (dove, non-voter) and Lockhart (hawk,non-voter) will speak today.
Housing starts and building permit data released this afternoon are expected tobe another set of weak numbers showing that the US economy lost somemomentum in early 2014, not least in the housing market.
In the UK minutes from the 5-6 February Monetary Policy Committee meeting inBank of England are due for release. We expect the unity that has so far prevailedunder Mark Carney’s governorship to have continued with broad consensus about the‘revised’ forward guidance BOE recently presented in its inflation report. In the newguidance the link between a future interest rate decision and the development in theunemployment rate has been weakened. Hence, the UK unemployment rate releasedtoday has become less important, although it is possible that unemployment droppedto the 7.0% threshold in the former forward guidance.
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Danske Bank