Forex Charts
USDJPY – a rally through 102.86 suggests a multi-week triangle unfolding
The move lower from 105.44 unfolded as a falling wedge which is resolving higher. The overlapping nature of the downtrend suggests that it was corrective and could mark wave-a in a nascent sideways range.
EURUSD – shooting star signals end to wave-ii correction; lower now
Our outlook has been for a wave-ii rally to complete below 1.3739. Yesterday’s bearish shooting star reversal above then below the Dec downtrend line suggest the upward correction is complete.
FX Daily
Euro-area industrial production is likely to show a decline in December followingthe strong gain of 1.8% m/m in November. Most euro countries have publisheddeclines in industrial production for December.
FX Daily
Fed chairman Janet Yellen testifies before the House Financial ServicesCommittee in her first semi-annual report on monetary policy since taking over fromBen Bernanke.
FX Daily
Quiet start to the week with no tier-1 data released. Italian industrial production and the euro sentix survey are the only releases and are unlikely to have a market impact.
FX Daily
The US labour market report for January will be the main market mover. We expect the labour market to have picked up some momentum although the bad weather,
USDJPY – bearish wave-4 range marking time between 101.77/100.77
A trendline from October of 2012 & 2013 has been broken as has the rounded top pattern from mid-December. So far our target zone has contained weakness but
EURUSD – bear flag forming with minor support at 1.3500/3477
The structure off the 1.3477 low still appears corrective and fits as a wave-iv within a still unfolding decline. Prices are consolidating below support near 1.3525 and 2 projections align at 1.3444 below.
FX Daily
The main event is the ECB meeting, where we expect a refi rate cut to 0.1%. During January we have seen low inflation and declining inflation expectations combined with higher short-term money market rates
USDMXN – nearing wave-C support within larger bull triangle at 13.30/28
The consolidation we laid out last week is still underway. Above the 13.20 retracement zone, prices are forming a bull triangle as wave-(4) in an uptrend from December.
EURUSD – bear triangle suggests wave-v move lower to 1.3418
Euro has been consolidation via a bear triangle just below support at 1.3525. The triangle fits nicely as a wave-iv in a nearly complete decline but a move above 1.3539 negates the pattern in the near-term.
FX Daily
Italian and Spanish service PMIs are expected to show further improvement and based on the flash euro-area PMIs, our forecasts are above consensus.