The top ten views we originally outlined in our year-ahead publication last December remain in place. To review, our 2014 top ten were:
Short EURUSD: The pair is flat in the year to date. After the setback when the ECB disappointed easing expectations in March, we now favour selling rallies.
Long USDJPY: The pair has fallen 3% on the year to date. From here on in, USD strength will be required to reach our forecast.
Long USD/CAD/MXN basket funded in the JPY and CHF: The basket is down 1.7% in the year to date. We are currently trading this view via a long USDCHF and short EURCAD position.
Short EURGBP: The cross is down 1.9% on the year to date.
Long NOKSEK: We lost 1.5% on our initial trade in this cross but re-entered it with the trade now 0.4% in the money. The cross is up 4% in the year to date.
Long GBPSEK: Our best trade of the year so far, we made 3.7% on this cross but have now shifted to the sidelines.
Long EURCHF: We remain long from 1.2305 and recommend patience.
Long AUDNZD: The cross is flat on the year to date. Our initial trade ended in a 1.5% loss in February but we recouped 0.7% trading this view in April.
Long EUR and Cable forward vols: vols remain low.