EUR/USD: Despite the bounce from ahead of the Nov 7 support line and the 55-DMA, initial focus remains on retests of $1.3611-18 with correcting daily Slow Stochastic and RSI studies adding weight to the bearish case. A close above the $1.3832 2013 high is needed to end bearish aspirations and see overall focus shift higher to retests of the Oct 2011 $1.4241 monthly high. A close below $1.3611 sees potential for a deeper correction back to $1.3295 Nov monthly lows.
R 4: $1.3832 2013 High Oct 25
R 3: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
R 2: $1.3769 High Dec 13
R 1: $1.3717 High Dec 23
Latest price: $1.3680
S 1: $1.3655 Low Dec 24
S 2: $1.3611/18 55-DMA, 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3811, Nov 7 support line
S 3: $1.3578 23.6% of $1.2755-1.3832
S 4: $1.3554 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832
A broad $1.6218-1.6484 range is expected to contain GBP/USD into the end of 2013 with the pair currently trading sideways in a narrower $1.6315-95 range. While the $1.6484 level caps a break lower that potentially targets the $1.5856 Nov monthly low remains favoured overall with a close at fresh 2013 highs needed to negate this view. Below $1.6218 sees immediate focus ratchet lower to the $1.6050 level.
R 4: $1.6573 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6484 2013 High Dec 18
R 2: $1.6428 38.2% of $2.1161-1.3503
R 1: $1.6395 High Dec 19
Latest price: $1.6380
S 1: $1.6336 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6484
S 2: $1.6302/09 Reversal Highs May, Sep 2012
S 3: $1.6244 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6484
S 4: $1.6218 Low Dec 17
USD/JPY bounced from initial support at the Y103.78 level continues to stall ahead of the Y104.41 level. A close below the Y103.78 level is needed to see O/B studies come into effect and begin to correct lower with immediate focus shifting back to retests of the Y102.50 support. The break above Y104.64 resistance seen as encouraging with next resistance spied at levels not seen since Oct 2008.
R 4: Y106.29 2 Oct 2008 high
R 3: Y105.82 3% 21-day MA envelope top
R 2: Y105.50 61.8% Fibonacci of Y124.14 to Y75.35
R 1: Y105.15 6 Oct 2008 high
Latest price: Y104.72
S 1: Y103.78 Low Dec 19 & 23
S 2: Y103.51 Daily Tenkan
S 3: Y103.13 21 day moving average
S 4: Y102.95 23.6% of Y97.62-104.59
EUR/JPY continues to remain supported ahead of the rising daily channel base with overbought tech studies noted. A close below the Y140.91/99 support region wouldease the current bullish pressure and see immediate focus shift lower to retests of Y138.30-45 support region. Given the recent topside hesitation following fresh 2013 and multi-year highs, today’s close above Y142.90, broken earlier this morning, is needed to reconfirm bullish focus.
R 4: Y145.77 Rising channel top
R 3: Y144.61 Oct 6 2008 high
R 2: Y144.52 3% 21-DMA envelope top
R 1: Y143.92 Daily Bollinger band top
Latest price: Y143.20
S 1: Y142.45/58 Hourly support, Channel base
S 2: Y141.86/91 Hourly support, Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y141.69 High Dec 11
S 4: Y141.22 Low Dec 16
