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Category: Technical Analysis

Credit Suisse Technical Analysis – May 27

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Credit Suisse Technical Analysis

Credit Suisse FX Daily

Today’s highlights:

■ GBPUSD’s spotlight stays on 1.4766/71 – the trendline from the 2008 low, the May 2016 high and 200-day average.
■ EURGBP’s near-term strength ideally caps below .7704/11.
■ EURUSD ideally draws fresh selling on the approach of price resistance at 1.1244.
■ USDCHF’s broader risk can remain topside whilst holding above key support at .9841/.9789.
■ USDJPY remains capped beneath key price resistance at 110.60/67.
■ EURJPY below 122.26/17 can see scope for 121.94 initially, ahead of a test of key trendline and price support at 121.49/33.
■ AUDUSD’s bullish “outside” day turns the focus onto .7254/61 where fresh selling is expected to show.
■ NZDUSD’s immediate risk can stay lower whilst capped beneath .6808/25.
■ USDCAD is holding above support from the 38.2% retracement at 1.2911.

Today’s trades/positions:

■ EURUSD: Short at 1.1199, stop above 1.1256 for 1.1100.
■ USDJPY: Short at 109.90, stop above 110.70 for 105.90.
■ GBPUSD: Long at 1.4480, stop below 1.4403 for 1.4745. Go long on break of 1.4780.
■ USDCHF: Long, stop below .9746 for .9992. Add to long on pullback to .9840.
■ AUDUSD: Short at .7330, stop above .7265. Cover shorts at .7120.
■ NZDUSD: Short at .6820, stop above .6860 for .6670.
■ USDCAD: Holding a long. Place the stop below 1.2740 for 1.3310.
■ EURJPY: Short at 123.75, stop above 124.70 for 121.60.
■ EURGBP: Short at .7750, stop above .7795 for .7530.

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Barclays Technical Analysis: USD to outperform in major FX space

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Barclays Technical Analysis

US bonds sold off on Friday, with the 10 year yield posting a small reversal candle. This is helping to provide a bid for the USD against major FX currencies. EURUSD posted a weekly reversal candle and looks to extend downside while USDCHD and USDJPY extended their recent gains following last Tuesday’s daily reversal candles. We expect the USD to continue to strengthen in the short term.

Tactical opportunities

•  USDJPY upside extension looks towards our targets near 108.75 before a top can form.

•  EURUSD weekly topping candle signals lower. A move below 1.1360 would open targets towards the 1.1215 range lows.

•  USDCHF rally extension points towards the 0.9800 range highs next.

FX Chart Focus and Levels

AUDUSD downside range break lacks previous levels of activity. We expect a period of consolidation. A beak below 0.7330 on increased volume is needed to signal lower towards 0.7210.

AUDUSD-daily-chart-and-volume

Daily volume rankings and highlights

Barclays-Daily-Volume-Rankings

FX at a Glance

EURUSD:  A weekly topping candle encourages our bearish view. A move below our initial targets near 1.1360 would signal lower towards 1.1300 and then the 1.1215 range lows.

USDJPY:  No change. We are bullish in the short term and look for a squeeze higher in range towards the 108.75 area, where we would look for signs of a top. Overall, we are bearish towards 105.20 and then 100.75.

GBPUSD:  A move below our initial downside targets in the 1.4390 area would signal further weakness. Our next targets are towards 1.4300.

USDCHF:  We are bullish. The move above resistance near 0.9725 signals further upside scope towards the 0.9800 range highs.

EURJPY:  We are neutral. A small basing candle on Friday signals short-term upside towards the 123.55 area. Overall, we prefer to fade upticks while the greater range highs near 126.50 caps. Our downside targets are towards 119.90, near the monthly cloud base and then 118.75/115.35.

EURGBP:  We are neutral. Lack of follow through following Thursday’s bearish engulfing candle keeps us sidelined for now. A break either side of the 0.7950/0.7860 would help to provide short-term direction.

EURCHF:  Friday’s rally encourages our bullish view. Our nearby targets area in the 1.1115 area. Beyond there, we are looking towards the 1.1200 range highs.

AUDUSD:  We have turned neutral having reached our initial targets near 0.7330 and expect a period of consolidation. A break below 0.7330 on increased investor volumes would encourage us to re-instate our bearish view towards 0.7210 next.

NZDUSD:  No change. We are bearish against the 0.7055 range highs. A break below nearby support in the 0.6805 area would confirm a top under 0.7055 and open targets near initial targets near 0.6760. Measured targets for the top are towards 0.6665 and then 0.6545.

USDCAD:  We are cautiously bearish USDCAD following a weekly key reversal candle. For now, we prefer to fade upticks against the 1.2995 range highs and look for a move back in range towards the 1.2460 lows. A break above 1.2995 however, would force us to abandon our bearish short-term view in expectation of a stronger upside correction.

 

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Credit Suisse FX Daily Technical Analysis

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Credit Suisse FX Daily

Today’s highlights:
■ NZDUSD has completed a large “bearish” outside reversal, turning the immediate risk lower for .6565/45.
■ AUDUSD has rallied further, with a clear break above .7490/.7533 needed to reinforce the base for .7739 next.
■ EURUSD above 1.1047/68 is needed to resolve the sideways range higher to establish a better base.
■ EURJPY ideally finds fresh selling on a challenge of trendline and price resistance at 125.48/97.
■ USDJPY is expected to find fresh selling on a test of price and trendline resistance at 114.28/29.
■ USDCAD’s bearish “outside” day keeps the focus lower for price support at 1.3225 next.
■ GBPUSD focus remains on trendline resistance and the 61.8% retracement barrier at 1.4296/351.
■ EURGBP below .7691 is needed to resolve the range lower for .7661.

Today’s trades/positions:
■ EURUSD: Long at 1.0960, stop below 1.0903 for 1.1165.
■ USDJPY: Short at 115.20, stop above 117.54 for 110.10/00.
■ GBPUSD: Flat, sell at 1.4350/51, stop above 1.4419 for 1.3840.
■ USDCHF: Short on the break below .9945, stop above 1.0039 for .9775.
■ AUDUSD: Long at .7400, stop below .7280 for .7730.
■ NZDUSD: Flat. Sell again at .6670, stop above .6720 for .6565/45.
■ USDCAD: Reversed short, stop above 1.3472 for 1.3040.
■ EURJPY: Short at 124.95, stop above 126.00 for 122.10.
■ EURGBP: Short at .7750, stop above .7830 for .7570.

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Credit Suisse FX Daily – EURGBP maintains a large bullish base above .7494.

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Credit Suisse FX Daily Research

Today’s highlights:
■ EURUSD  has  initially  been  capped  below  61.8%  retracement  resistance  at 1.1259, but we stay bullish for 1.1387, then 1.1459/95.
■ EURGBP maintains a large bullish base above .7494.
■ USDJPY spotlight remains on critical support at 116.15/115.97.
■ AUDUSD  below  .7002/.6986  can  set  a  top  and  again  expose  the  .6828/27 early year lows.
■ GBPUSD  has  found  a  cap  at  the  50%  retracement  barrier  and  “neckline” resistance at 1.4660/4701.
■ USDCHF reinforces a top below former trendline support now at .9977.
■ USDCAD  has  found  fresh  buying  interest  at  the  38.2%  retracement  of  the March 2015/January 2016 rally at 1.3631.

Today’s trades/positions:
■ EURUSD: Long at 1.1155, stop below 1.1054 for 1.1450.
■ USDJPY: Short at 117.30, stop above 117.80 for 116.05.
■ GBPUSD: Flat. Sell again at 1.4590, stop above 1.4669 for 1.4150.
■ USDCHF: Flat. Sell at 1.0025, stop above 1.0078 for .9805.
■ AUDUSD:  Flat.  Sell  at  .7150,  stop  above  .7220  for  .6830.  Also  sell  on  a direct break below .6986.
■ NZDUSD: Flat. Sell at .6680, stop above .6753 for .6365.
■ USDCAD: Assume flat, buy at 1.3800, stop below 1.3710 for 1.4100.
■ EURJPY: Long at 130.05, stop below 129.50 for 131.90.
■ EURGBP: Long at .7585, stop below .7520 for .7750.

Societe Generale – In the Charts Forex

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Societe Generale Research

Today’s key points

Having achieved our advocated target of 0.7750,  EUR/GBP has been undergoing a pause. The pair has sustained above the confirmation level of the double bottom and inverted H&S at 0.75/0.7450 which remains an important support. Recently, the pair has rebounded after testing a multi month trend support (currently at 0.76) and is now closing in on January highs of 0.7750. It is noteworthy that it has completed a typical 3-year down cycle earlier and further recovery looks  on  cards  however  a  break  beyond 0.7750  will  be  needed  to  signal  a  larger  pullback towards September 2014 highs of 0.8070/0.81.

After testing intermittent resistance at 100/100.40, the Dollar Index is undergoing a short term pullback. Very short term, it has tested the triangle limit at 96/95.60 and is now approaching towards  immediate resistance at 97.45. A move below 96/95.60 will mean a test of 94.40, the 76.4% retracement of recovery since last August. Please refer to the  Chart Alert  published last week about an alternative view on the index.

USD/CAD probed the multiyear ascending channel support last week at 1.3760/1.37, where it has formed a  daily  hammer and bullish engulfing. With daily stochastic indicator near  a  trend support, a recovery looks possible. A break above 1.3910, a steeper descending trend will lead to  a pullback  initially  towards  1.4170 and even towards 1.4290/1.4330, the 61.8% retracement from January highs.

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