EUR/USD – traders report that an Asian sovereign sold in the region of E200mln between $1.2740/50, which helped to put an early cap on the recovery at $1.2750. Sales said to have been profit taking, Asian sovereign was a noted buyer into early Europe, with overnight USD sale interventions also noted in respective Asian currency pairs. Rate currently trades around $1,.2740. One major US name notes that despite the recovery the retail flow still has a skew of 52% sellers over buyers which would normally mean that the upside remains vulnerable. Above $1.2750 and move offers noted between $1.2760/80, though stops area seen mixed in between $1.2760/65.
GBP/USD – extended recovery to $1.5447, following the break of early resistance at $1.5435, with the corrective pullback meeting decent demand at $1.5420. Rate currently trades around $1.5435. Continuing talk of the HSBC dividend cover for 1100GMT providing some added buoyancy, though most suggest a good part of the interest more than likely covered already. Offers seen at $1.5450/55, more toward $1.5470 ahead of $1.5490/00.
AUD/USD – grinding higher through offers $1.0210/20 with the rally so far back up to $1.0219 and virtually filling the o/n gap left over the weekend. Offers are expected above around the $1.0240/45 NY recovery after the Friday fall to $1.0200 follwing the strong NFP data. AUD currently trades around $1.0210
EUR/CHF – rate saw lows in early Asia of Chf1.2133, but market remained wary of taking it lower following from talk from last week that official demand interest is seen in place at Chf1.2125. Barrier interest also noted behind at Chf1.2100 seen adding to the demand interest in this area. Rate currently trades around Chf1.2153. Resistance seen up at Chf1.2185/00.
EUR/HUF – following Friday’s Fitch downgrade and the Forint posting record lows of Huf324.22 against the euro PM Orban was quoted as saying that Hungary is ready to start unconditional talks with the IMF. Fellegi, Hungary’s negotiator with the EU and IMF is due to meet IMF Chief Lagarde in Washington on Wednesday. Traders remain cautious in
headline driven markets with the threat of emergency rate hikes also being touted about this week. The cross opened in Europe at Huf315.40 and slipped to Huf314.15 on EUR/USD gains. Support seen into Huf313.80/70, a break opens Huf312.10/00. Reported offers at Huf317.00/20, ahead of Huf319.30/40 (Huf319.33 – Pre Fitch downgrade levels 6 Jan). Rate picks up off lows to Huf314.35 at typing.
EUR/PLN – locals return from their National holiday on Friday as Eastern Europe markets remain headline driven with any moves dictated by the Forint and EUR/USD. Not much on the data front this week so all eyes will be on the Polish MPC Wednesday, where early expectations are to remain on hold at 4.5%. Citing a combination of euro-polish weakness
and flat core inflation behind the move. The currency pair opened in Europe at Pln4.4905 and slipped to Pln4.4828 on sharp EUR/USD gains, before meeting demand and lifting to Pln4.4855 in current dealings. Support seen at Pln4.4670/60 (Pln4.4664 – 6 Jan low), ahead of Pln4.4600/80 where strong demand from locals seen building. On the topside reported offers at Pln4.5030/40, a break opens Pln4.5230/40 (Pln4.5239 – 5 Jan high).
EUR/CZK – the currency pair opened the European session around Czk25.865 and slipped to Czk25.775 on sharp EUR/USD gains, before meeting and demand and lifting to Czk25.829 in thin, headline driven markets. Demand seen into Czk25.675, a break opens Czk25.600. On the topside reported offers at Czk25.965 and Czk26.000, stronger at
Czk26.110 (25 Nov high).
EasyForexNews Research Team