Forex Market
Central Bank Insights – Pre-FOMC: Extension of forward guidance, but no Q3 just yet?
The trend down in real GDP growth is unmistakable; from 4.1% at an annual rate in Q4 of last year, to 2% in Q1 to 1.5% in Q2. At such a pace the U.S. economy is extremely vulnerable to shocks such as the downturn in Europe and the upcoming fiscal retrenchment.
FOMC Meeting: 3 possible scenarios, plus 3 policy drivers
Expectations are swirling about tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and what it will bring in the way of further hints of the timing, nature, and size of the inevitable QE3. But there’s something else to speculate on whenever we have a known important event risk in the crosshairs: what market expectations have already priced in.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5721, stg0.7812, GBP closed in NY at $1.5707 with rate squeezing to $1.5703 overnight lows into early Asia before turning higher and pushing to highs of $1.5730.
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2282, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.2260, after recovering off a session low of $1.2225 to $1.2264 before settling between $1.2250/60 through the NY afternoon.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y78.24 and Y96.02, risk aversion continued in Asian trade and USD/JPY ground to Y78.09, before running into strong importer demand ahead of the reported stealth bids at Y78.00.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Time for a completely new ECB measure?
EUR USD (1.2285) Given the seniority of the individuals involved in yesterday’s various meetings – Draghi, Schaeuble, Geithner – news about the outcomes was surprisingly thin.
AUDUSD to fade in the shortest term?
AUDUSD has pushed over 1.0500 again overnight, but may have bitten off more than it can chew, at least in the shortest term as it may face headwinds as we navigate the rest of the week’s event risks.
Technical Analysis
Commodity FXers & scandies live lives to the edge… EUR/USD Mid-body support confirmed… EUR/SEK Offered into that stretch again… AUD/USD Headed for ~1.07 it seems… EUR/NOK Earlier upmove likely a fluke… NOK/SEK +1.1270 recoil within downtrend.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD: Recovery Tests 21-Day Moving Average. COMMENTARY: The euro holds above the 5-day moving average at $1.2255, testing the 21-DMA at $1.2280 as the daily stochastic study recovers.
USD/JPY Analysis
Closed in NY Monday at Y78.20 after pulling back from a European session high Y78.40. Risk aversion continued in Asian trade and USD?JPY ground to Y78.09, before running into strong importer demand ahead of the reported stealth bids at Y78.00.
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5707 with rate squeezing to $1.5703 overnight lows into early Asia before turning higher and pushing to highs of $1.5730.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.2260, after recovering off a session low of $1.2225 to $1.2264 before settling between $1.2250/60 through the NY afternoon.