Forex Market
Asia today: The calm before the storm? Fed might start first wave
A relatively steady, tight-ranged overnight session led to a steady, tight-ranged Asian session for the EUR today.
Asian Currencies Technicals
AUD/USD: Continues to trade above upper Bolli. The pair continues to make fresh 4 month highs but looks a little ahead of itself as it continues to trade above the rising 21 day upper Bollinger band ($1.0484).
A busy week ahead – too much QE priced in?
The FOMC is up Wednesday – more ambiguous rhetoric or is this a set-up meeting for a September QE3 move? And the ECB will need to see Draghi following up on last week’s rhetoric or else…
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5725, stg0.7812, GBP closed in NY Friday at $1.5748 after rate had recovered from earlier Asian lows of $1.5666 to $1.5768.
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2285, EUR/USD closed in NY Friday at $1.2322 after rate had corrected off lows of $1.2241 to $1.2390 before pulling back to $1.2295 ahead of the close.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y78.36 and Y96.31, USD/JPY opened in Asia around Y78.43 and nudged higher on investor demand, dealers reported of continued light volumes and the rate pared gains on release of weaker than expected June Industrial Production data.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: A problem well-defined
EUR USD (1.2290) The Mario Draghi risk-on rally extended into Friday, resulting in the largest one-week gain for the euro in two months. Sceptics poured scorn on ECB president’s comment from the outset because, they claimed, it lacked substance.
FX G10 and EM Morning Trader Views
G10 EUR – Late wild finish to the week in ny with a new high (1.2390) followed by a 100 point retracement – Data all back loaded this week starting with FED (wed) before ECB (thurs) and payrols (Fri.) and let us not forget month end tomorrow –
Technical Analysis
In short: Expectations on ECB action later this week run high… EURUSD has completed a full bullish near-term 5-wave cycle – likely “A” in a broader “A-B-C” correction…
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD: Recovery Tests 21-Day Moving Average. The pair holds above the 5-day moving average at $1.2220, testing the 21-DMA at $1.2295.
USD/JPY Analysis
Closed in NY Friday at Y78.52 after profit taking eased off Y78.67 highs. USD/JPY opened in Asia around Y78.43 and nudged higher on investor demand, dealers reported of continued light volumes and the rate pared gains on release of weaker than expected June Industrial Production data.
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY Friday at $1.5748 after rate had recovered from earlier Asian lows of $1.5666 to $1.5768. Rate touched an early high into Asia of $1.5750 before turning lower in tandem with EUR/USD, the rate squeezing to an eventual low of $1.5712 before settling around $1.5720 into the European open.