EUR/USD: Recovery Tests 21-Day Moving Average. COMMENTARY: The euro holds above the 5-day moving average at $1.2255,
testing the 21-DMA at $1.2280 as the daily stochastic study recovers. Bulls are struggling to build on this study as 10-day momentum fades, but a sustained break of the 21-DMA risks Fibonacci retracements of the July pullback at $1.2397 and $1.2480. Main nearby support is last week’s $1.2042 low.
RES 4: $1.2455/80 55-DMA, 2% MAE, Bollinger band, 61.8% of July pullback
RES 3: $1.2407 Low 28 June
RES 2: $1.2390/97 High 27 July, 50% of July pullback
RES 1: $1.2280 21-day moving average
LATEST PRICE: $1.2278
SUP 1: $1.2255 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.2042/65 Low 24 July, Bollinger band
SUP 3: $1.2010 Minor Fibonacci level
SUP 4: $1.1965 2% moving average envelope
GBP/USD: Tests 200-Day Moving Average. GBP built on the impressive recovery over the 21-day moving average, which remains support at $1.5595, turning bull’s attention to the $1.5745 200-DMA ahead of Fibonacci level at $1.5786. However, the daily studies remain neutral.
RES 4: $1.5908 61.8% retracement of May/Jun decline
RES 3: $1.5807 Low 5 April
RES 2: $1.5780/86 Bollinger band, 100-DMA, 50% of May/Jun decline
RES 1: $1.5745/68 200-day moving average, High 30 July
LATEST PRICE: $1.5705
SUP 1: $1.5670 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5595/1.5606 21, 55-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.5459 Low 25 July
SUP 4: $1.5393/00 Low 12 July, Bollinger band
USD/JPY: Studies Seek a Base. USD/JPY studies are seeking a base in oversold territory but trade holds under the base of the Ichimoku cloud, 21 & 200-DMA of Y79.13/38, keeping bear’s attention on June lows of Y77.66. The 5-day moving average turns initial support at Y78.28.
RES 4: Y80.10/14 High 5 July, Bollinger band, 38.2% retracement level
RES 3: Y79.72 Top of Ichimoku cloud
RES 2: Y79.13/38 200, 55-DMA, Kijun line, Base Ichimoku cloud
RES 1: Y78.57/96 Tenkan line, 21-day moving average
LATEST PRICE: Y78.19
SUP 1: Y77.66/98 Low 1 June, Bollinger band, 23 July
SUP 2: Y76.80 2% moving average envelope
SUP 3: Y76.32/37 Daily lows Aug 2011
SUP 4: Y76.03/16 Low 1 Feb 2012, 19 Aug, 23 Sep 2011
EUR/JPY: Daily Studies Still in Oversold Territory. EUR/JPY also sees the daily studies attempt a recovery from oversold territory as the market overtakes the Tenkan line of Y95.74 and bulls turn their attention to Fibonacci levels from Y97.76. The 21-DMA is providing a stalling point, however, now at Y96.95.
RES 4: Y99.45/60/67 38.2% level, Ichimoku cloud base, 76.4% retracement
RES 3: Y98.36/61/68 Low 28 June, 61.8% of July pullback, 55-DMA
RES 2: Y97.33/76 High 27 July, Kijun line, 50% of July pullback
RES 1: Y96.95 21-day moving average
LATEST PRICE: Y96.06
SUP 1: Y95.74/95 Tenkan line, 5-day moving average
SUP 2: Y94.12 Low 25 July
SUP 3: Y93.80/99 2% MAE, Bollinger band
SUP 4: Y93.69 50% Projection level
EasyForexNews Research Team