Forex Market
EUR and the ECB
The ECB’s Trichet signalled a clear change in tone at Thursday’s press conference, not only removing the reference to upside risks to inflation, but also highlighting that downside risks to growth had intensified. Indeed, Trichet even re-emphasised in the Q&A session the significance of these changes, saying that the balance of risks have changed.
FX Techs: London Open
At a glance: Relax for now Yesterday’s EUR positive ruling of the constitutional court in Germany gave the already ongoing risk recovery an extra boost so that we received first evidence of a broader recovery unfolding, particularly in European indices, where 5-wave sequences seem to be complete in the Dax and the DJEuroSTOXX 50.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The euro market’s creeping dovishness
EUR/USD (1.4060) Jean-Claude Trichet’s admission almost a fortnight ago that the risks to medium-term price stability were “under study” at the ECB was the opening shot to a still blossoming market discussion about the future path of eurozone interest rates. The ECB’s study could, of course, yield any number of different conclusions.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Negative – MinFin places CZK 6.3bn in CZGB 5.7/24: yield 3.193%, bid/cover 1.1 (p2) HU: Positive – July IP accelerates to 2.7% yoy (p2) PL: Neutral – MPC keeps policy rate unchanged at 4.50% (p2)
Fred Neumann short piece “Asia’s buffer” + FX forecasts
Fred continues to argue that the risk for Asia is a mere cyclical dip, not a financial crisis and Fred’s “chart of the week” shows that savings still have a healthy buffer over investment. HSBCs latest GDP, CPI and FX forecasts for the region are on p.4 (Worth a glance).
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 08 September 2011
Resumption of Wednesday’s risk rally could provide support for EURUSD despite EUR risks The world looked like a much better place on Wednesday as risk rallied keeping high beta currencies like SEK, AUD, and NZD well in demand. AUD could receive further support this morning from an improvement in the employment numbers especially after the […]
SELL PLN? WE FEEL THAT’S THE WAY FWD
The recent turmoil in the financial markets has confirmed EMEA FX remains the weakest link in the EM space. In CEE, we see that the Polish zloty is one of the most sensitive currencies to global market headwinds. Valuation metrics suggests that the PLN is too strong and the structure of the balance of payments […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News RO: Positive – MinFin sells RON 1bn 1y t-bill at 6.73% vs. 6.64% last time (p1) TK: Negative – August CPI comes in way above consensus at 6.7% yoy, core accelerates to 6.2% yoy from 5.4% yoy (p2) RU: Dovish – Aug CPI declines 0.2% mom slightly below cons (p1)
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Payroll disappointment mitigated
EUR/USD (1.4160) Zero non-farm jobs created in the US in the month of August is a universally sobering statistic. Despite this, it seemed to take the FX markets an awfully long time to digest its implications. Fully one hour after the publication of the figure on Friday, the euro had still not exited its pre-release […]
Societe Generale FX Daily
The US has a day off work – though a lack of employment is in fact, the biggest problem facing the world’s dominant economy. The EUR/USD 1.42 barrier was taken out early in the Asian session. This DNT structure had helped to keep EUR/USD in a range even as ECB rate cuts were being priced […]
Emerging Markets Economics Daily
Latin America Brazil: We forecast GDP growth of 2.9% in 2011 and 3.3% in 2012 Chile: The minutes from the 18 August monetary policy meeting showed a diversity of opinions among board members regarding the future path of the monetary policy rate Colombia: CPI data for August will be published today; we expect the data […]
European FX Daily – USD stronger, equities down going into a key week for policy
– Antipodeans and Nordics lead sell off vs USD, Asian equities down 0.5-3% – German factory orders and ECB bond purchases in focus today – Global central banks to turn more cautious and neutral, keeping rates on hold