Forex Market
Macrobullets – Monday 5th September
TOP Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centre-right bloc suffered another stinging defeat on Sunday in a regional election in Germany’s poorest state, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with both her conservatives and their Free Democrat allies losing support {http://reut.rs/oqyYyt} HSBC China services PMI hit historical low of 50.6 in Aug {http://bloom.bg/rnOzRs}
European FX Daily – Focus on payrolls
– FX traded sideways, Asian equities down 0.2-1.5% – US non-farm payrolls likely to surprise lower What to watch for today USD: Payroll to disappoint? Our economists expect today’s non-farm payrolls report to continue the recent run of “bad-but-not-necessarily-recessionary” data. They forecast below consensus prints of +5K for the headline payrolls number and +40K for […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 02 September 2011
– All eyes on US employment report; an upside surprise could result in a risk-off reaction Better than expected data out of the US left markets trading with a risk off tone, although commodity currencies continue to trade well. Consensus was looking for ISM manufacturing to fall into contraction territory, but it managed to hold […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The psychology of zero non-farm payrolls
EUR/USD (1.4260) The market consensus for today’s US non-farm payroll numbers appear to have tumbled over the course of this week. On Monday, estimates were around 100,000. In the meantime, thanks to a few last-minute analyst downgrades, the consensus may not be much better than 30,000.
FX Strategist – EM FX Scorecard, August 2011
– The latest run of our emerging market currency model, the Scorecard, suggests being long the BRL, PLN and IDR and being short the PHP, TWD and HUF in September 2011 (Exhibit 1). This is largely in line with our fundamentals-based currency views where we are bullish the BRL, IDR and PLN and bearish the […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: No need for bad Italian budget news
EUR/USD (1.4375) Over the course of yesterday, traders became progressively aware of how far the Italian government had moved away from the rigorous austerity plan it proposed on August 12th. After already dropping the proposed wealth tax, policymakers scrapped the planned age adjustment for pension entitlements and the sharp cuts in funding to small towns.
FX Daily Strategist Asia – Thu Sep 1
JPY stronger on fixing demand, BoJ spent Y4.51tn on August 4 Month-end fixing flows and the risk of being whipsawed acted as a deterrent to position taking Wednesday. In the event, the JPY was the recipient of most attention, USDJPY running up into the 4pm London (WMR) fix only to drop 40 points immediately in […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Secret expectations
EUR/USD (1.4410) The German stock market plunged yesterday, seemingly out of nowhere, and the reason for the selloff is still unclear. Some reports say that there was talk in the market of an impending credit downgrade for Germany, but that was quickly denied by all three rating agencies.
European FX Daily – Bernanke unlikely to rescue markets
– The antipodeans led modest rally vs USD, Asian equities down 0.2-0.8%. – Bernanke at Jackson Hole today at 15:00 GMT – A weak Swiss KoF is likely to have limited impact on the CHF – Bank of Mexico likely to keep the policy rate at 4.5% with a shift to a neutral bias
Daily FX Technical Strategy – Waiting for the break
Ahead of the event risk later today, recent ranging conditions are expected to persist. Beyond that we will be monitoring important range extremes for the next directional move. A break over 1208 in S&P would indicate an optimistic outcome, as would a break below the important range lows at 73.42 in the USD index.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News HU: Mixed – AKK sells HUF52.5bn HGB, demand for shorter paper strong, weaker for the long end RO: Mixed – RON226mn 10y ROMGB sold at 7.59%, TK: Mixed – Aug industrial confidence drops sharply, CU held up well
FX Daily Strategist Europe – 26 August 2011
Has St. Louis Fed´s Bullard let the Bernanke cat out of the bag? Our guess is risk sentiment may not come to too much harm Friday, in which case USD may be back on sale, AUD to outperform KOF a key release that may harden Swiss resolve to prevent CHF re-appreciating