Forex Market
New Zealand: RBNZ September MPS – RBNZ keeps door open for hikes
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.50%, in line with the consensus forecast and market pricing. The Statement was more dovish than the June MPS, in line with our expectations (see New Zealand: RBNZ September MPS – Not that dovish, 14 September 2011). Governor Bollard noted […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Made in Italy – bought in China?
EUR/USD (1.3680) Against a backdrop of intense political debate over Greece, heightened tensions in the banking sector and continued European stock market declines, the euro struggled to find its feet yesterday. The selling, which ultimately dragged it below $1.35, was also accompanied by rising implied volatility.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Negative – July C/A posts CZK 12.8bn deficit (p2) HU: Negative – Government supports FX mortgage plan but does not force banks to provide HUF financing (p2) PL: Neutral – July C/A posts EUR 1.6bn deficit (p2) (p2) RO: Mixed – August CPI fell to 4.3%yoy, about 30bp below market consensus, Jan-July C/A […]
Sovereign Ratings Outlook: September 2011
Well Euro held in there well yesterday after a punishing 10 previous days. Plenty of chat and headlines around China and Italy support but as seen before the support for Spain did not amount to anything decent. Italy’s auction will be watched closely. Valentin Marinov (Strategy) notes that proposed EFSF issuance of EUR25bn to year-end […]
Daily Economic Briefing: September 12, 2011
Global data summary Tensions continue to build in the EMU fiscal crisis. Investors are sensing a breaking point may be in the offing and, with little idea of what this will be or how it will play out, are moving quickly to the exit. In the event of a disorderly involuntary default, Greece would likely […]
Big numbers, small effect: Comments on Obama’s new job plan
Less than meets the eye Last week, President Obama went before a joint session of Congress to propose a series of measures (the American Jobs Act) designed to spur economic growth and job creation. The proposals amount to USD447bn in tax cuts and new spending (about 3% of current nominal GDP). That may sound like […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Market has no ear for positive eurozone news
EUR/USD (1.3520) The resignation of Juergen Stark from the ECB has gobbled up column inches in the weekend press, but it would be wrong to blame the news for the euro’s decline. By the time the news agencies ran the story, the euro had already registered two-thirds of he day’s losses.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 12 September 2011
EUR continues to slide – volatility risks slipping over into real economy: Concerns over progress on the Greek bailout and the sudden resignation of Juergen Stark from the ECB Governing Board has seen risk pummelled. The DJIA fell more than 300 points and the flight into safe haven assets kept USD and USTs well bid. […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Right evaluation, wrong conclusion
EUR/USD (1.3905) By changing the its evaluation of the risks for eurozone growth and inflation to the “downside” and “balanced”, respectively, the ECB’s Governing Council precisely matched market expectations.
FX Pulse: Funding in Euros
Global Currency Research Conditions for further EUR weakness have fallen into place. The German Constitutional Court has supported the control rights of the German Parliament regarding future EMU support payments and guarantees. The ECB has underlined the need for fiscal consolidation and for peripheral countries to restructure their economies, which will be deflationary.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Mixed – Activity indicators show diverging results in July (p2) CZ: Neutral – 2Q GDP (final) comes in at 0.1% qoq, 2.2% yoy (p2) HU: Positive – AKK sells HUF54bn HGBs at auctions vs. HUF45bn original offer, demand strong for the shorter papers (p2) RO: Positive – July industrial production increases 1.7% yoy […]
European FX Daily – Markets quiet ahead of weekend G7 summit
– NZD leads modest rally vs USD, Asian equities mixed – Bernanke kept to Jackson Hole speech – Obama announced a bigger than expected $447bn jobs stimulus plan – Greece to announce participation rate for the debt exchange – G7 finance ministers meet for two-day summit – Conference Calls: Crunch Time – Outlook for the […]