Forex Market
Australia: RBA board minutes – ‘Market pricing might not be giving an accurate reading of expectations’
The Reserve Bank of Australia(RBA) decided to leave the cash rate at 4.75% following the September board meeting. International Financial Markets:”Members began their discussion by observing the extreme volatility in financial markets over the past month, which reflected fears about a slowdown in the global economy and escalation of sovereign debt tensions in the United […]
Russia: More signs of Q3 growth pick-up in August
The last set of August indicators published by Rosstat today provides more support to our expectation that Russia’s GDP growth will pick up after an uninspiring 3.4% y/y in Q2. Earlier signs of this came from improving IP performance (6.2% y/y versus 5.2% in July).
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Risk aversion remains highly elevated, with little prospect of a drop any time soon as Italy’s downgrade adds to Europe’s woes 2. Greece to hold another conference call with the Troika today after a “constructive” discussion yesterday evening, but no official statement yet. 3. The German ZEW should fall, but perhaps not […]
European FX Daily – Risk appetite starts busy week on the backfoot
– AUD and SGD lead selloff vs USD, Asian equities down 0.3-2.0% – FOMC likely to embark on operation twist – Euro zone PMI likely to print sub-50, leaving the euro vulnerable
New week, same story as policy-makers leave markets without leadership
Europe’s Finance Ministers appear to have achieved no more than the G7 leaders did a week earlier. E-bonds will continue to be pushed by some, wanted by others, resited by Germany. Suggestions to allow leveraging the EFSF to give it ore power have also been rebuffed.
Key Currency Views: September 2011
Currency themes Theme #1. “Twist and Shout”. The Fed is expected to announce operation twist on Sept 21, likely followed before Thanksgiving by a loud “shout” (communicating their commitment to ultra-low rates beyond 2013). QE3 will be on the table if, as we expect, there is no inflection in the US data by Q1 of […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 19 September 2011
Mildly risk-positive Friday, but NZD, CAD and AUD lead the way, not EUR The dip in EURUSD in Friday’s Asia session, from 1.39+ on Thursday to sub-1.38 triggered our Long EURUSD trade recommendation, the pair subsequently oscillating quite narrowly around that level though the remainder of Friday.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Mixed – C/A balance in April reaches 2.3% of GDP (p2) RO: Negative – MinFin sells RON 0.18bn 3Y ROMGB: yield 7.49%, (p2) TK: Neutral – 8M11 central budget primary surplus comes in at TRY 8.6bn (p2)
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Good news follows bad
EUR/USD (1.3860) Given the brisk resuscitation of the European stock indices – no less than 12 percent in three days for the German blue chips – it is tempting to think that the preceding sell-off in equities and in the euro was overdone, that the market had again displayed its tendency to over-react.
FX Focus: JPY – To intervene or not to intervene… what drives that decision?
We believe that several factors, such as valuation and momentum, have affected the Japanese government’s decision whether or not to intervene in the FX market. Our model suggests the probability of JPY-intervention this month is at its highest level since August 2010.
HSBC: Macrobullets Thursday
TOP: Italy facing another test As Moody’s Rating Decision Looms as Italy’s 90-day period closes at the end of this week. {http://on.wsj.com/n420W6} The government reaffirmed its intention to fully implement its fiscal reform program, following a teleconference between Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News KZ: Mixed – Kazakhstan’s real GDP expanded 6.7% yoy in Jan-July vs. 7.1% in Jan-June (p2) RU: Mixed – CBR cuts repo rate buy 25bp and hikes deposit rate by 25bp in a move to reduce money market volatility (p1)