Forex Charts
EURUSD – 1.3578/3650 range to continue with likely test of lower end
The 1.3675 break has left Euro below the wedge uptrends and the April pivot. The 1.3586 low is either wave-1 or (i);
FX Daily
Although the market probably has its eyes on Thursday’s ECB meeting and Friday’sUS job report, the first day of the week is loaded with interesting key figure releases.
USDJPY – rounding top confirmed below 101.47, signals wave-iii decline
$JPY is respecting down channel resistance from early April and early May. Now that prices have reversedlower from 102.14 a new, smaller down channel is forming.
EURJPY – countertrend rally now after 5-wave decline (139.43-140.17)
The cross has completed a clean 5-wave decline, the one knock is that wave-(v) is small and so we have to be open to an extension lower yet.
FX Daily
A bunch of US key figures are on the calendar for today. We expect a slight setbackin personal income and personal spending growth in line with the market’sexpectation and unchanged PCE core inflation.
USDJPY – range continues to tighten, n/t channel resistance is 102
It appears that $JPY is feeling the pull from both US yields (lower) and stocks (higher) and the net effect has been an ever tightening range for the last 5-months.
EURUSD – falling bullish wedge targets 1.3680
There is a clean bullish falling wedge’ in the Euro that has met the wedge support level and is so far bouncing. The wedge target line aligns with the first fib retracement zone at 1.3680.
AUDNZD– above 1.0912 strong indication of move to 1.12
We have been viewing the consolidation in AUDNZD as a textbook wave-(4) triangle. The curveball, and the newly promoted base case, is that the triangle was just a wave-(b) in a larger (a)-(b)-(c) corrective rally.
FX Daily
The most important release is euro area money supply and credit growth for April.At the ECB-forum in Sintra ECB-president Draghi in his speech Monday appearedconcerned about banks’ capacity to increase loans.
USDJPY – channel, flag & pivot resistance all align at key 102 level
The trendless market continues as depicted by the still tightening RSI range. Last week’s bullish hammer reversal and follow through as RSI bounced off the 40 zone was a minor bear trap and dampened our bearish outlook.
EURUSD – choppy decline tempers bearishness; n/t range 1.3615/3670
The break of multiple up trends and the RSI 40 level supports our cal that a significant bearish rising wedge completed near 1.40 and a new downtrend is underway.
FX Daily
In the data calendar the focus will mainly be on US data. Durable goods orders forApril should give us an idea of the strength of the rebound in business capitalexpenditure in Q2.