Although the market probably has its eyes on Thursday’s ECB meeting and Friday’sUS job report, the first day of the week is loaded with interesting key figure releases.
We expect the first release of the Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMI figures forMay to decline in line with the overall euro area. The decline should mainly be aresult of weaker export due to a lagged effect of the slowdown in the US and China inQ1 together with the impact of the strong euro.
We expect German inflation to decline to 1.0% y/y in May from 1.1% y/y in April.The decline should be due to lower core inflation, while food price inflation shouldalso continue downwards after having been fairly stable until March.
In the US we expect ISM manufacturing to increase again in May. In April the ISMreport surprised positively and the comments were generally upbeat pointing towardsrising momentum and increasing demand following the rough winter.
There are also some central bank speeches today. Fed’s Evans speaks on monetarypolicy in the morning and during the day ECB’s Mersch, Nouy and Linde arescheduled to speak.
The Scandi market will focus on the release of May manufacturing PMIs in Norwayand Sweden today. In Denmark the market will take notice of April’s foreign portfolioinvestments.
Read the full report: FX Daily
Danske Bank