Forex Charts
EURUSD – yet to confirm bull reversal, below 1.3589/57 = further weakness
The Euro reversal has yet to see bullish confirmation via a rally through 1.3675. For now we can view the rally to
EURJPY – wave-D rally towards ~142 but first a pullback to ~138.50
A look at the daily chart suggests that prices are rallying in wave-D as part of a late stage triangle. The downtrend & extension target zone for this leg of the coil are 141.50-142.90.
FX Daily
Today’s data calendar is rather thin. The only releases due in Europe are the SentixInvestor Confidence survey and Spanish house price index.
USDJPY – wave-(4) bull flag targets 103.08, 103.60
Yesterday’s intraday IB updates focused on the near-term wave-(4) consolidation. The pattern from 100.82 is a very clean impulse so far and
FX Daily
The US job report will be the main focus today. We expect an increase in non-farmpayrolls of 250,000 but see risk of a pay-back from the extra strong April figure.
USDCAD – 5-wave rally not enough yet to confirm lows are in
It is enticing to view the impulsive rally from 1.0823 as a sign that the larger trend is turning from down to up but more evidence is needed.
EURUSD – bear flag break at 1.3589 targets 1.3532 wedge target line
Bearish range broken with this morning’s trade below 1.3580. That range between 1.3578/3650 was consolidating the sell-off from either 1.3731 or 1.3993 and
FX Daily
Today’s ECB meeting will be the main attraction. We expect the ECB to deliver anaggressive easing move by cutting the refi and deposit rates, taking the latter intonegative territory.
FX Daily
The Spanish and Italian May service PMIs are due for release. The Spanish figureincreased to 56.5 in April, which is the highest print since the beginning of 2007.
EURJPY – countertrend rally unfolding with clean A-B-C rally to 139.75/85
We have been looking for a “countertrend rally….[to] 139.43/140.17”. The A-B-C correction higher is unfolding with very clean wave forms and we are honing in on the 139.75/85 zone.
FX Daily
The most interesting data release today is euro-zone inflation in May, which weexpect will decline back to this cycle-low of 0.5% y/y from 0.7% y/y in April.
USDJPY – > 102.14 clears daily down channel and hourly range highs
We can remove 2 of the alternate scenarios with a rally above 102.36 this week; at the point the large wave-[4] triangle will take precedence.