Friday’s bounce from ahead of recent 2015 and 9 year lows is a concern for bears when combined with O/S daily studies looking to correct and the proximity of the Bollinger band base ($1.1720). Bulls still need to see a close above $1.1898 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above $1.1977 to shift immediate focus back to the $1.2107-1.2255 region where the 21-DMA is located. Bears now need a close below $1.1820 to shift immediate focus back to $1.1720-54
RES 4: $1.2033 Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 3: $1.2000 Low Jan 2 now resistance
RES 2: $1.1976 High Jan 5
RES 1: $1.1898 Hourly resistance Jan 7
LPRICE: $1.1859
SUP 1: $1.1820 Hourly resistance Jan 9 now support
SUP 2: $1.1754 2015 Low Jan 8
SUP 3: $1.1666 Monthly Low Dec 2 2005
SUP 4: $1.1640 2005 Low Nov 15 2005
Bears were unable to capitalize on last week’s break of the falling daily channel base with Friday’s close above $1.5155 easing bearish pressure and shifting immediate focus back to the $1.5276-1.5333 region. O/S daily studies looking to correct higher are seen adding support to the bullish case with bears now needing fresh 2015 lows to reconfirm a bearish bias and overall focus on the 2013 low. Initially bears look
for a close below $1.5138 to shift immediate focus to 2015 lows
RES 4: $1.5455 21-DMA
RES 3: $1.5335 Hourly resistance Jan 5
RES 2: $1.5274 High Jan 6
RES 1: $1.5203 Hourly support Jan 5 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.5165
SUP 1: $1.5138 Hourly support Jan 9
SUP 2: $1.5077 Hourly support Jan 9
SUP 3: $1.5023 Low July 15 2013
SUP 4: $1.4818 2013 Low July 9 2013
Failure at the ¥120.00 level last week resulted in a sell-off that has seen a close below the rising daily trend line and immediate pressure on last week’s ¥118.05 low. Bears now look for a close below the 55-DMA to add weight to the bearish case for an initial move back to the ¥115.44-57 region. The Bollinger band base is seen as the key concern for bears on a break lower. Bulls need a close above ¥119.96 to hint at further topside with above ¥121.02 to shift focus back to the 2014 high and then the 2007 high at ¥124.16.
RES 4: ¥120.74 High Jan 2
RES 3: ¥120.42 Falling daily trend line
RES 2: ¥119.96 High Jan 8
RES 1: ¥118.70 Hourly resistance Jan 9
LPRICE: ¥118.12
SUP 1: ¥118.05 Low Jan 6
SUP 2: ¥117.60 55-DMA
SUP 3: ¥117.24 Bollinger band base
SUP 4: ¥115 57 Monthly Low Dec 16
Last week’s sell-off saw the EUR/JPY close below 21 & 55-WMAs and 100 & 200-DMAs with overall focus now having shifted to the ¥134.14 Oct monthly low. The Bollinger band base is seen as the key concern for bears and is likely to limit follow through. Bulls now need a close above ¥140.71 to ease bearish pressure and above ¥142.01 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA (¥141.66) and to shift immediate focus to ¥144.04-145.61.
RES 4: ¥142.97 Hourly resistance Jan 5
RES 3: ¥142.01 Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 2: ¥141.36 Hourly resistance Jan 9
RES 1: ¥140.70 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance
LPRICE: ¥140.08
SUP 1: ¥139.76 Bollinger band base
SUP 2: ¥139.16 High Sept 29 now support
SUP 3: ¥138.08 High Oct 30 now support
SUP 4: ¥136.29 100-WMA
The £0.7875-91 resistance is seen as key this week with bulls needing a close above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes, shifting immediate focus to the £0.7923 resistance and overall focus to the £0.7975-0.8008 region where the channel top and 200-DMA are located. While the £0.7875-91 region caps a bearish bias remains that favours a retest of the 2015 low with the Bollinger band base also noted at this level.
RES 4: £0.7954 High Dec 17
RES 3: £0.7923 High Dec 18
RES 2: £0.7891 100-DMA
RES 1: £0.7875 High Jan 6
LPRICE: £0.7819
SUP 1: £0.7784 Low Jan 9
SUP 2: £0.7772 Hourly resistance Jan 1 now support
SUP 3: £0.7745 2015 Low Jan 2, Bollinger band base
SUP 4: £0.7695 Monthly Low Oct 20 2008