The fresh 5+ lows Monday reconfirmed bearish pressure and saw overall focus shift to the $1.1780-1.1827 region. Key concerns for bears are seen coming from O/S daily and weekly studies and the daily and weekly Bollinger band bases which may limit follow through with a close above $1.2000 now needed to ease bearish pressure and above $1.2107 to hint at a bigger bounce that initially targets the $1.2255-
1.2303 region
RES 4: $1.2107 High Jan 2
RES 3: $1.2070 Hourly resistance Jan 2
RES 2: $1.2033 Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 1: $1.2000 Low Jan 2 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.1955
SUP 1: $1.1887 Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $1.1866 2015 Low Jan 5
SUP 3: $1.1827 Monthly Low Feb 27 2006
SUP 4: $1.1780 Low Dec 30 2005
Last weeks failed attempts to take out the 21-DMA resulted in a sharp sell-off Monday. The sell-off saw GBP/USD dip marginally below the falling daily channel base with focus now on the $1.5104 Aug 2013 monthly low. Layers of resistance have accumulated with bears now needing a close above $1.5435 to ease bearish pressure and above $1.5486 to hint at a bigger bounce that initially targets the channel top ($1.5618). Key concerns for bears come from O/S studies and the Bollinger band bases
RES 4: $1.5540 Hourly support Jan 2 now resistance
RES 3: $1.5486 Previous daily support now resistance
RES 2: $1.5364 Hourly resistance Jan 2
RES 1: $1.5335 Hourly resistance Jan 5
LPRICE: $1.5256
SUP 1: $1.5182 Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $1.5167 2015 Low Jan 5
SUP 3: $1.5104 Monthly Low Aug 2 2013
SUP 4: $1.5031 Low July 15 2013
Continued failures in the ¥120.74-00 region have resulted in a move lower that sees the USD/JPY dipping below the rising daily channel base with the ¥118.26-85 supports below also seen as key. Overall bears look for a close below ¥118.26 to end bullish hopes, shifting immediate focus to the ¥115.44-57 region although the Bollinger band base and 55-DMA may support on the way down. Bulls need a close above ¥119.79 to ease bearish pressure and above ¥121.00 to initially target 2014 highs.
RES 4: ¥121.85 2014 High Dec 8
RES 3: ¥121.00 High Dec 9
RES 2: ¥120.74 High Jan 2
RES 1: ¥119.79 Hourly resistance Jan 5
LPRICE: ¥118.94
SUP 1: ¥118.85 Low Dec 30
SUP 2: ¥118.26 Low Dec 18
SUP 3: ¥117.24 Bollinger band base
SUP 4: ¥116.82 55-DMA
The sell-off has resulted in a break below the cloud base, the first since the break above in late Oct with key concerns for bears seen coming from O/S daily studies and the Bollinger band base. Bulls need a close above ¥144.16 to ease the current bearish pressure and to shift focus back to the ¥145.61-147.25 region where the 21-DMA and channel top are located. While ¥144.16 caps bears remain focused on the 200-DMA at ¥140.34 with a close below targeting Oct monthly lows
RES 4: ¥145.32 High Jan 2
RES 3: ¥144.66 Low Jan 1 now resistance
RES 2: ¥144.16 Hourly resistance Jan 5
RES 1: ¥142.97 Hourly resistance Jan 5
LPRICE: ¥142.19
SUP 1: ¥141.97 50.0% Fibonacci retracement 134.14-149.80
SUP 2: ¥141.55 100-DMA
SUP 3: ¥141.21 Low Nov 4
SUP 4: ¥140.12 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 134.14-149.80
The aggressive bounce from fresh 2015 and multi-year lows Friday eased the immediate bearish pressure a little but confirmed the significance of the £0.7870-0.7923 resistance region. Bulls need a close above £0.7870 to hint at further topside whereas a close above £0.7923 confirms breaks of the 55 & 100-DMAs, shifting focus back to the 200-DMA and falling daily trend line. While £0.7870 caps bears target £0.7695 overall.
RES 4: £0.7954 High Dec 17
RES 3: £0.7923 High Dec 18
RES 2: £0.7870 High Dec 23
RES 1: £0.7856 21-DMA
LPRICE: £0.7833
SUP 1: £0.7794 Hourly support Jan 5
SUP 2: £0.7772 Hourly resistance Jan 1 now support
SUP 3: £0.7745 2015 Low Jan 2
SUP 4: £0.7695 Monthly Low Oct 20 2008