In the US we expect another strong labour market report for October thisafternoon, despite some signs that growth has started to lose some momentum lately,see US Labour Market Monitor: Underutilisation is diminishing. We expect the nonfarmpayrolls to stay robust in October at 240,000, a tad above the current consensus.In line with consensus we expect the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 5.9%.The development in wage growth should also be watched closely, as this is importantinput for the Fed to judge how fast the labour market is tightening. So far wagegrowth has stayed subdued.
Germany will release both industrial production and foreign trade data forSeptember. These data will give us important input on the strength of the Germaneconomy, which could be balancing close to recession in Q3. We expect industrialproduction to rebound about 3% m/m (consensus 2.0% m/m), partly because thetiming of the summer holiday weighed on production in August. That said, theweaker-than-expected German factory orders released yesterday suggest downsiderisk. France will also release industrial production for September today.
EU finance ministers will meet at 09:00 CET for the Ecofin meeting. The financeministers are expected to discuss proposals for a tax on financial transactions. It hasproved difficult to reach a consensus and no breakthrough is expected today.
Norwegian manufacturing production probably declined in September on theback of weakness in oil-related industries.
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