In the US focus this morning will be on the outcome of the mid-term election. In thedata calendar we expect the non-manufacturing ISM to have declined in Octoberpartly because consumer spending appears to have slowed a bit in September andOctober. The ADP private employment report will also give us important informationon the strength of the labour market ahead of the important non-farm payrolls onFriday.
In the euro area focus will be on the publication of final service PMI for October andmore interesting, the first estimate for service PMI in Italy and September. Spain isexpected to stay above 55, while Italy is expected to be stuck below 50, underscoringthe increasing divergence between the two peripheral countries.
The retail sales data for September released across the euro area have been weak andwe have revised down our forecast for euro-area retail sales in September to a 1.4%m/m decline (rose 1.2% m/m in August). The weak retail sales in September have to alarge degree been driven by very weak sales of clothing, partly due to the unusualwarm weather in Northern Europe.
FOMC-members Kocherlakota (dove, voter), Lacker (hawk, voter 2015) andRosengren (dove, non-voter) are scheduled to speak today.
In Scandi Sweden releases data on industrial production and orders, while houseprices are on tap in Denmark.
Read the full report: FX Daily