Time spent above the 21-DMA was brief with the sharp reversal lower reconfirming bearish pressure and immediate focus on the $1.2501 2014 low. Bulls now need a close above $1.2666 to ease the renewed bearish pressure and above $1.2770 to hint at move back to the key $1.2995 level. While $1.2666 caps bears favour a break of the 2014 lows with focus then shifting to the $1.2042 2012 low. Key concerns for bears come from the Bollinger band bases which may limit follow through.
RES 4: $1.2845 Hourly resistance Oct 16
RES 3: $1.2771 High Oct 29
RES 2: $1.2720 Hourly break down level Oct 29
RES 1: $1.2666 Low Oct 27 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.2595
SUP 1: $1.2546 Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $1.2501 2014 Low Oct 3
SUP 3: $1.2465 Low Aug 28 2012
SUP 4: $1.2385 High Aug 14 2012 now support
The $1.6185 resistance level confirmed its significance Tuesday with it capping the bounce from the 21-DMA and resulting in a sell-off that sees initial focus firmly back on the 2014 low. The Bollinger base is seen as the key concern for bears as it may limit downside follow through but with layers of resistance having developed on the hourlies bulls need a close above $1.6087 to ease the bearish pressure and above $1.6185 to target $1.6525-35. Fresh 2014 lows see bears targeting the $1.5425 level last seen in Aug 2013.
RES 4: $1.6185 High Oct 21
RES 3: $1.6087 Previous daily support now resistance
RES 2: $1.6024 Hourly resistance Oct 29
RES 1: $1.6002 Hourly support Oct 30 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.5968
SUP 1: $1.5940 Low Oct 16, Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $1.5875 2014 Low Oct 15
SUP 3: $1.5854 Monthly Low Nov 12 2013
SUP 4: $1.5775 Low Sept 13 2013
Gains continued for the USD/JPY Wednesday with the close above ¥108.75 providing support to the bullish case with overall focus having returned to the ¥110.09-68 region. Layers of support have developed with bears now needing a close below ¥108.71 to ease bullish pressure and below ¥108.20 to see focus shift back to the key ¥107.60 support that provided the base for the current leg higher. Key concerns for bulls come from O/B studies and the Bollinger band top which may limit follow through.
RES 4: ¥110.68 Monthly High Aug 15 2008
RES 3: ¥110.09 2014 High Oct 1
RES 2: ¥109.66 Bollinger band top
RES 1: ¥109.25 High Oct 7
LPRICE: ¥109.10
SUP 1: ¥108.71 Hourly support Oct 30
SUP 2: ¥108.23 Hourly breakout level Oct 29
SUP 3: ¥107.94 Low Oct 29
SUP 4: ¥107.60 Alternating hourly support/resistance
The rally from the ¥135.20 level stalled ahead of the Bollinger band top overnight with the relatively bearish close a concern for bulls. Initial support is noted at ¥137.25 with a close below seeing pressure return to the key ¥136.49 support. Bears look for a close below this level to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift overall focus back to the ¥134.10 support. While ¥136.50 supports bulls remain focused on the 200-DMA.
RES 4: ¥139.16 High Sept 29
RES 3: ¥139.05 200-DMA
RES 2: ¥138.20 Bollinger band top
RES 1: ¥138.03 High Oct 29
LPRICE: ¥137.41
SUP 1: ¥137.25 High Oct 27 now support
SUP 2: ¥136.80 21-DMA
SUP 3: ¥136.49 Low Oct 24
SUP 4: ¥136.06 Hourly support Oct 23
Yet another attempt to break higher stalled ahead of the 55-DMA on Wednesday with the EUR/GBP looking a little heavy and bears now favouring another test of the key £0.7850-62 support region. Bears continue to retain the upper hand while the £0.7916-51 region caps but need to see a close below £0.7850 to confirm bearish pressure and see focus shift to the £0.7764-66 region where 2012 and 2014 lows are located.
RES 4: £0.7985 Hourly resistance Oct 16
RES 3: £0.7951 Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 2: £0.7927 High Oct 22
RES 1: £0.7916 55-DMA
LPRICE: £0.7884
SUP 1: £0.7862 Low Oct 27
SUP 2: £0.7850 Low Oct 10
SUP 3: £0.7820 Low Oct 2
SUP 4: £0.7766 2014 Low Sept 30
