The bounce from ahead of the recent 2014 lows and consolidation above the $1.6050 level in Asia so far is providing bulls with a little confidence although layers of resistance in the $1.6163-1.6248 region will become the next hurdle. Bears need a close back below $1.6050 to reconfirm bearish pressure and immediate focus on the $1.5872-1.5940 region. Overall bulls need a close above $1.6248 to shift immediate focus to the 55-DMA ($1.6393) and overall focus to $1.6536.
Initial resistance remains at the ¥106.67 level with bulls needing a close above to ease the current bearish pressure. While ¥106.67 caps immediate bearish focus remains on the ¥104.04-68 region with the 100-DMA noted at ¥104.04. Key concerns for bears come from O/S studies and the Bollinger band base which may limit downside follow through while the Bolli base catches up. Overall bulls need a close above ¥107.62 to shift focus back to the key ¥108.23-76 region.
The price action over the past two days has seen the ¥134.10 level confirm its significance as support and the ¥136.59 level confirm its significance as resistance following the sharp bounce from 2014 and 11 month lows and from below the Bollinger band base Thursday. Bulls continue to look for a close above ¥136.59 to ease bearish pressure. Overall a close above ¥137.97 is needed to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and shift focus to the 200-DMA (¥139.26) and then the Sept highs. While ¥136.59 caps bears remains focused on the ¥134.10 level with a close below shifting overall focus to the ¥131.11-20 region.
EUR/GBP has retreated back below the Bollinger band top (£0.7978) following Wednesday’s close well above as it continues to flirt with the 100-DMA. Bears now look for a close below £0.7947 to shift immediate focus back to the £0.7869-0.7901 region where the 21-DMA is located. While £0.7947 supports bulls continue to target the £0.8067-98 region where the 200-DMA is located.