The rally from just short of the $1.2500 level continues with the EUR/USD now approaching the 21-DMA. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to end bearish hopes for the time being and shift immediate focus to the $1.2995 level. Daily studies have room to move before becoming O/B and are supportive of further topside. Bears now need a close below $1.2690 to relieve the renewed bullish pressure and shift focus back to the $1.2501 2014 low.
RES 4: $1.2902 High Sept 23
RES 3: $1.2816 Low Sept 22 now resistance
RES 2: $1.2772 21-DMA
RES 1: $1.2764 Hourly resistance Sept 25
LPRICE: $1.2751
SUP 1: $1.2714 Hourly support Oct 8 & 9
SUP 2: $1.2690 Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 3: $1.2584 Low Oct 7
SUP 4: $1.2501 2014 Low Oct 3
Bulls continue to take some comfort in the bounce from fresh 2014 lows combined with slowly correcting O/S daily studies. The close above $1.6162 adds support to the bullish case with immediate focus having shifted to the 21-DMA. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to end bearish hopes and see overall focus return to the $1.6526-36 resistance region. Bears now look for a close back below $1.6129 to give bears hope and shift focus back to 2014 lows.
RES 4: $1.6526 High Sept 19
RES 3: $1.6416 High Sept 23
RES 2: $1.6289 High Sept 30
RES 1: $1.6235 21-DMA
LPRICE: $1.6190
SUP 1: $1.6129 Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 2: $1.6026 Low Oct 6
SUP 3: $1.5950 Hourly support Oct 6
SUP 4: $1.5854 Monthly Low Nov 12 2012
Bears are taking significant comfort in closes below the 21-DMA which are seen adding weight to bearish case. Bulls now need a close above ¥108.75 to confirm a false break and target the ¥110.09-68 region once more. Immediate focus remains on the ¥106.81-106.911 region with the Bollinger band base expected to limit follow through below ¥106.91. While the 21-DMA caps overall focus remains on the ¥104.28-68 region last seen in early September.
RES 4: ¥110.09 2014 High Oct 1
RES 3: ¥109.25 High Oct 7
RES 2: ¥108.74 High Oct 8
RES 1: ¥108.51 21-DMA
LPRICE: ¥107.84
SUP 1: ¥107.75 Hourly support Oct 8
SUP 2: ¥107.41 Previous daily resistance now support
SUP 3: ¥106.91 Bollinger band base
SUP 4: ¥106.81 Low Sept 16
The correction lower from the Sept monthly high continues with the close below the 100-DMA last Wednesday seeing immediate focus return to the 2014 low. The ¥137.94-138.03 region remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above the 100-DMA to ease the current bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift immediate focus to the 200-DMA (¥139.45). Key concerns for bears come from O/S studies that are looking to correct but while the 100-DMA caps bears retain control.
RES 4: ¥139.16 High Sept 29
RES 3: ¥138.60 21-DMA
RES 2: ¥138.03 100-DMA
RES 1: ¥137.94 Low Sept 30 now resistance
LPRICE: ¥137.52
SUP 1: ¥137.32 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 2: ¥136.56 Low Oct 7
SUP 3: ¥135.73 2014 Low Aug 8
SUP 4: ¥134.10 Low Nov 20 2013
Recent flirtations with the 21-DMA (£0.7867) have seen the EUR/GBP trading above this level today with bears now looking for a close below £0.7859 to hint at a shift in focus back to the 2012 & 2014 lows in the £0.7764-66 region. While £0.7859 supports immediate focus shifts to the £0.7915-27 region with bulls looking for a close above to add support to the case for a move back to the 200-DMA (£0.8108).
RES 4: £0.7979 Bollinger band top
RES 3: £0.7963 100-DMA, 21-WMA
RES 2: £0.7927 55-DMA
RES 1: £0.7915 High Sept 18
LPRICE: £0.7872
SUP 1: £0.7859 Low Oct 8
SUP 2: £0.7820 Low Oct 3
SUP 3: £0.7802 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 4: £0.7766 2014 Low Sept 30
