US non-farm payrolls take centre stage. We expect a rise of 250k, higher than theconsensus estimate of 218k. There are two reasons why we continue to look forpayroll growth around 250k. First, our model for payrolls comprising a range oflabour market indicators points to job growth of 250-260k. Second, there is going tobe some technical payback from very weak service employment in August, which waspartly related to strike activity. We look for an unchanged unemployment rate of 6.1%in line with consensus. Wage increases have remained subdued around 2% but weexpect to see a gradual increase soon as the labour market is gradually tightening.
The US non-manufacturing ISM will also draw attention. We see downside risk asseen in the ISM for the manufacturing sector as well. The non-manufacturing ISM isat a very high level and with consumption growth moderating a bit lately, we shouldsee a decline in the index. This might add to the picture of weaker-than-expectedbusiness cycle data out of the US.
We also get PMI service data in Europe. The service sector has generally held upbetter than manufacturing but we will likely see some increasing spill-over to theservice sector in coming months. Euro retail sales will also give some input towhether consumption is being affected by the slowdown in manufacturing.
Sweden will release data for industrial- and service production
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