Fresh 2014 and 2 year lows overnight see immediate focus having shifted to the $1.2465 Aug 28 2012 low with overall focus now on the $1.2042 2012 low. Layers of resistance continue to accumulate with bulls now needing a close above $1.2717 to ease bearish pressure whereas above $1.2902 is needed to hint at a bigger bounce. The Bollinger band base remains an issue for bears and appears to be limiting follow through.
RES 4: $1.2764 Hourly resistance Sept 25
RES 3: $1.2717 High Sept 29
RES 2: $1.2664 Low Sept 29 now resistance
RES 1: $1.2634 Hourly resistance Sept 30
LPRICE: $1.2612
SUP 1: $1.2581 Falling daily channel base
SUP 2: $1.2465 Low Aug 28 2012
SUP 3: $1.2241 Low Aug 10 2012
SUP 4: $1.2133 Monthly Low Aug 2 2012
After looking comfortable below the 21-DMA ($1.6293) Friday GBP/USD continues to extend its losses confirming a shift in focus back to the 2014 low. Bulls now need a close above $1.6287 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and ease bearish pressure while a close above $1.6343 is now needed to shift immediate focus to the $1.6535 level. Immediate pressure remains on initial support with a close below needed to add weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: $1.6373 Hourly support Sept 24 now resistance
RES 3: $1.6343 Hourly resistance Sept 25
RES 2: $1.6287 High Sept 30
RES 1: $1.6229 Hourly resistance Sept 30
LPRICE: $1.6183
SUP 1: $1.6162 Low Sept 16
SUP 2: $1.6109 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $1.6091 100-WMA
SUP 4: $1.6052 2014 low Sept 10
The ¥108.25-46 region remains key support with bears continuing to look for a close below ¥108.25 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. This would then shift immediate focus to the 21-DMA (¥107.76) with a close below needed to hint at a deeper move lower. While the ¥108.25-46 region supports bulls continue to retain the upper hand and target the Aug 2008 monthly high at ¥110.68. The key concern for bulls remains the O/B daily studies but while ¥108.25 supports bulls continue to dominate.
RES 4: ¥112.01 2008 High Jan 2 2008
RES 3: ¥110.88 Bollinger band top
RES 2: ¥110.68 Monthly High Aug 15 2008
RES 1: ¥110.09 Hourly resistance Oct 1
LPRICE: ¥109.89
SUP 1: ¥109.49 Hourly support Sept 30
SUP 2: ¥109.12 Low Sept 29
SUP 3: ¥108.85 Hourly support Sept 26
SUP 4: ¥108.46 Hourly support Sept 24
Bulls take some comfort from the failure to close below the 100-DMA Tuesday following the sharp spike lower. In saying that, bulls now need to see a close above ¥139.15 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure whereas a close above the 200-DMA remains needed to shift overall focus back to the Sept monthly high. While ¥139.15 caps bears favour further downside with a close below the 55-DMA needed to confirm overall focus on the 2014 low.
RES 4: ¥140.62 Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 3: ¥140.33 Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 2: ¥139.67 200-DMA
RES 1: ¥139.15 Hourly resistance Sept 25
LPRICE: ¥138.62
SUP 1: ¥137.94 Low Sept 30
SUP 2: ¥137.66 55-DMA
SUP 3: ¥137.29 Low Sept 10
SUP 4: ¥136.26 Bollinger band base
The significance of the 2012 low as support was confirmed Tuesday with the sell-off in euro-sterling coming to within 2 pips of the 2012 low before finding support on numerous attempts to head lower. Bulls now need to see a close above £0.7851 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and a close above the 21-DMA to shift immediate focus to the 100-DMA. Daily studies remain at O/S levels and combined with Bollinger band base (£0.7744) are seen as key concerns for bears and likely to limit downside follow through.
RES 4: £0.7902 21-DMA
RES 3: £0.7897 Hourly resistance Sept 18
RES 2: £0.7851 High Sept 24
RES 1: £0.7830 High Sept 25
LPRICE: £0.7791
SUP 1: £0.7766 2014 Low Sept 30
SUP 2: £0.7764 2012 Low July 23 2012
SUP 3: £0.7695 Monthly Low Oct 20 2008
SUP 4: £0.7597 Monthly Low Mar 10 2008
