EUR/USD continues to remain heavy with fresh 2014 and 14 month lows again today confirming bearish pressure with immediate focus shifting to the $1.2745 2013 low. Initial resistance is now noted at the previous 2014 low at $1.2920 but bears will continue to look for a close above $1.2989 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure. The key concerns for bears remain O/S studies and the Bollinger band bases but while $1.2989 caps its all one way traffic.
RES 4: $1.3110 Low Sept 2 now resistance
RES 3: $1.3050 Hourly resistance Sept 4
RES 2: $1.2989 High Sept 5
RES 1: $1.2920 Previous 2014 Low Sept 4 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.2872
SUP 1: $1.2745 2013 Low Apr 4 2013
SUP 2: $1.2660 Monthly Low Nov 13 2012
SUP 3: $1.2465 Low Aug 28 2012
SUP 4: $1.2241 Low Aug 10 2012
GBP/USD is now trading below the 100-DMA for the first time since Sept 2013 with immediate focus having shifted to the $1.6004-48 region where the 200-DMA is noted while overall focus remains on the Nov monthly low from 2013 at $1.5854. Bulls need a close above Friday’s $1.6281 low to ease bearish pressure with a close above $1.6440 needed to shift immediate focus to layers of resistance $1.6499-1.6650. O/S daily studies and proximity of Bollinger band bases remain concerns for bears.
RES 4: $1.6350 Hourly resistance Sept 4
RES 3: $1.6281 Low Sept 5 Now resistance
RES 2: $1.6233 Hourly resistance Sept 8
RES 1: $1.6187 Hourly resistance Sept 8
LPRICE: $1.6069
SUP 1: $1.6048 Low Nov 15 2013
SUP 2: $1.6004 200-WMA
SUP 3: $1.5854 Monthly Low Nov 12 2013
SUP 4: $1.5775 Low Sept 12 2013
The bounce from last week’s dip back to ¥104.68 has resulted in fresh 2014 and 6 year highs both Monday and Tuesday with overall focus having shifted to the Aug 2008 monthly high at ¥110.68. Initial support is now noted at the previous ¥105.71 2014 high with a close below needed to ease bullish pressure a little but a close below ¥104.68 remains needed to see cracks appearing in the up-trend. Key concerns for bulls remain O/B studies and Bollinger band tops but for now its onward and upward.
RES 4: ¥110.68 Monthly High Aug 2008 2008
RES 3: ¥109.17 Monthly High Sept 2 2008
RES 2: ¥107.98 High Sept 19 2008
RES 1: ¥106.99 High Sept 25 2008
LPRICE: ¥106.27
SUP 1: ¥105.71 Previous 2014 High Sept 4 now support
SUP 2: ¥104.68 Low Sept 5
SUP 3: ¥104.39 Hourly resistance Aug 2 now support
SUP 4: ¥104.22 Hourly support Sept 1
EUR/JPY continued to recoup some of last week’s losses to start the new week a bounce back towards the 21-DMA. Bulls now need a close back above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure a little and provide some breathing space and above ¥137.68 to shift focus back to last week’s ¥138.27 highs. While the 21-DMA caps bears hold out hope for fresh 2014 lows with a close below ¥136.59 needed to reconfirm bearish pressure. In saying that the Bollinger band base may continue to limit downside follow through.
RES 4: ¥138.02 High Sept 4
RES 3: ¥137.68 Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: ¥137.07 21-DMA
RES 1: ¥136.99 High Sept 8
LPRICE: ¥136.80
SUP 1: ¥136.59 Hourly support Sept 8
SUP 2: ¥135.73 2014 Low Aug 8
SUP 3: ¥134.10 Low Nov 20 2013
SUP 4: ¥132.21 Low Nov 11 2013
The rally to start the new week again tested the £0.8016-36 region before closing back below. The £0.8016-36 region remains a sticking point with repeated attempts to break this region resulting in sharp corrections lower so bulls need a close above £0.8036 to hint at a shift higher in overall focus that targets the 200-DMA (£0.8164). Bears now need a close below £0.7977 to shift focus back to 2014 lows.
RES 4: £0.8051 Low June 11 now resistance
RES 3: £0.8041 Bollinger band top
RES 2: £0.8036 Monthly High Aug 14
RES 1: £0.8031 100-DMA
LPRICE: £0.8009
SUP 1: £0.7996 Hourly support Sept 8
SUP 2: £0.7977 Hourly support Sept 8
SUP 3: £0.7958 High Sept 5 now support
SUP 4: £0.7919 Low Sept 5
