Fresh 2014 and 11 month lows continue for the EUR/USD with bears initially focused on the $1.3079-1.3101 region. Layers of resistance remain in the $1.3220-1.3445 region and are an issue for bulls who now look for a close above $1.3298 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and a close above the 21-DMA to provide some breathing room. The key concerns for bears remain the O/S daily studies and proximity of the Bollinger band base.
RES 4: $1.3328 Hourly resistance Aug 19
RES 3: $1.3298 Hourly resistance Aug 20
RES 2: $1.3262 Hourly resistance Aug 22
RES 1: $1.3220 Low Aug 22 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.3205
SUP 1: $1.3185 Hourly support Aug 25
SUP 2: $1.3101 Monthly Low Sept 7 2013
SUP 3: $1.3079 Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: $1.2993 Low July 15 2013
Despite daily studies remaining at O/S levels GBP/USD traded at fresh 5 month lows to start the new week with bears now firmly focused on the $1.6466 March monthly low. Bulls now need to see a close above $1.6600 to relieve bearish pressure a little but a close above the 200-DMA would make them more comfortable whereas a close above the 21-DMA ($1.6766) is needed to hint at a bigger bounce that initially targets the 100 & 55-DMAs.
RES 4: $1.6757 Low Aug 12 now resistance
RES 3: $1.6712 Breakdown level Aug 19
RES 2: $1.6682 200-DMA
RES 1: $1.6600 Hourly resistance Aug 21
LPRICE: $1.6560
SUP 1: $1.6535 Hourly support Aug 25
SUP 2: $1.6511 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $1.6484 55-WMA
SUP 4: $1.6466 Monthly Low Mar 24
Following last week’s sharp move higher the USD/JPY continues to work its way towards the Y104.92-105.44 region and the 2014 highs. The pair found support in late NY on Friday at Y103.84 but bears need to see a close below the Y103.40 level to ease bullish pressure a little and below the 21-DMA to hint at a deeper correction. The key concerns for bulls remain O/B daily studies and the closes well above the Bollinger band top (Y104.02).
RES 4: Y107.01 Weekly High Sept 2008
RES 3: Y105.44 2014 High Jan 2
RES 2: Y104.92 High Jan 16
RES 1: Y104.27 Hourly resistance Aug 25
LPRICE: Y104.16
SUP 1: Y103.85 Hourly support Aug 22
SUP 2: Y103.40 Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 3: Y103.11 Hourly support Aug 20
SUP 4: Y102.90 Low Aug 20
Time spent above the 55-DMA (Y137.77) has been brief with the recent rally stalling ahead of the Y138.07 Aug 1 high and Bollinger band top. Bulls need a close above Y138.07 to confirm a shift in focus to the Y138.95-139.30 region. The key concern for bulls is the proximity of the Bollinger band top which may continue to limit topside follow through. Bears now need a close below Y137.01 to ease bullish pressure.
RES 4: Y138.95 100-DMA
RES 3: Y138.77 High July 9
RES 2: Y138.48 High July 14
RES 1: Y138.07 High Aug 1, Bollinger band top
LPRICE: Y137.57
SUP 1: Y137.31 Low Aug 22
SUP 2: Y137.19 21-DMA
SUP 3: Y137.01 Hourly support Aug 20
SUP 4: Y136.77 Low Aug 15
In what has become an all too familiar pattern the EUR/GBP once again corrected sharply lower from a rally towards the Gbp0.8020-36 region only to find support ahead of the 55-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below Gbp0.7915 to end bullish hopes and target 2012 lows. While the 55-DMA supports bulls hold out hope for a sustained rally that targets the Gbp0.8051-66 region.
RES 4: Gbp0.8150 Monthly high June 3
RES 3: Gbp0.8062 100-DMA
RES 2: Gbp0.8051 Low June 11 now resistance
RES 1: Gbp0.8036 High Aug 14, Bollinger band top
LPRICE: Gbp0.7972
SUP 1: Gbp0.7968 55-DMA
SUP 2: Gbp0.7955 Breakout level Aug 13
SUP 3: Gbp0.7915 Low Aug 6
SUP 4: Gbp0.7903 Low July 28
