The bounce from fresh 2014 and 9 month lows Wednesday has seen initial support develop on the hourlies at $1.3378 but bulls continue to look for a close above $1.3445 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above $1.3513 to shift focus to $1.3650-00. While $1.3445 caps bears look for a close below the 100-WMA ($1.3354) to add weight to the bearish case and target the $1.3203-23 region.
RES 4: $1.3485 High July 24
RES 3: $1.3473 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.3445 High Aug 1
RES 1: $1.3407 Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: $1.3385
SUP 1: $1.3378 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 2: $1.3333 2014 low Aug 6
SUP 3: $1.3294 Monthly low Nov 7 2013
SUP 4: $1.3223 High Sept 5 2013 now support
GBP/USD continues to chop around the 100-DMA as it consolidates below $1.6894. Bulls look for a close above $1.6894 to ease bearish pressure and above the 55-DMA to hint at further topside with a close above the 21-DMA then needed to add support to the bullish case. Bears need fresh lows to confirm bearish focus but the proximity of the Bolli base and O/S studies may limit downside follow through.
RES 4: $1.7001 High July 28
RES 3: $1.6962 55-DMA
RES 2: $1.6928 Hourly resistance July 30
RES 1: $1.6894 Hourly resistance July 31
LPRICE: $1.6850
SUP 1: $1.6844 Hourly support Aug 6
SUP 2: $1.6813 Low Aug 1
SUP 3: $1.6738 Low June 11
SUP 4: $1.6718 Monthly Low June 4
The sharp correction lower toookout the 21, 55, 100 & 200-DMAs and the 61.8% Fibo of the Y101.07-103.10 move before recovering a little lost ground only to remain capped ahead of the 200-DMA. The 200-DMA is now noted as initial resistance with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure a little and above Y102.66 to shift focus back to July monthly highs. Bears look for a close below Y101.78 to add weight to the bearish case targeting July lows.
RES 4: Y102.92 High Aug 5
RES 3: Y102.66 High Aug 6
RES 2: Y102.45 Low Aug 5 now resistance
RES 1: Y102.27 200-DMA
LPRICE: Y102.25
SUP 1: Y101.78 Low Aug 6
SUP 2: Y101.32 Low July 23
SUP 3: Y101.20 55-WMA
SUP 4: Y101.07 Monthly low July 10
The failure to capitalise on time spent above the 21-DMA (Y137.29) has now resulted in fresh 2014 and 9 month lows for the pair with bears now targeting the Y134.10 Nov 20 2013 low. Bulls now look for a close above Y137.36 that previously supported to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above the 55-DMA (Y138.22) to hint at higher levels. Daily studies are adding weight to the bearish case and have room to move before becoming oversold.
RES 4: Y138.01 High Aug 1
RES 3: Y137.72 Falling channel top May/Aug highs
RES 2: Y137.36 Alternating daily support/resistance
RES 1: Y136.93 Hourly support Aug 6 now resistance
LPRICE: Y136.88
SUP 1: Y136.46 Hourly support Aug 6
SUP 2: Y136.23 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: Y136.16 2014 Low Aug 6
SUP 4: Y134.10 Low Nov 20 2013, Falling daily channel base
The bounce from below the 21-DMA Wednesday gives bulls a little hope with a close above Gbp0.7945 needed to provide a little breathing room. Overall a close above the 55-DMA remains needed to end bearish hopes and shift focus back to the key Gbp0.8033-51 region. Bears now look for a close below Gbp0.7915 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and bearish pressure and target the trend line projection
RES 4: Gbp0.7993 55-DMA
RES 3: Gbp0.7985 High Aug 1
RES 2: Gbp0.7972 Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 1: Gbp0.7945 High Aug 6
LPRICE: Gbp0.7943
SUP 1: Gbp0.7915 Low Aug 6
SUP 2: Gbp0.7904 Low July 28
SUP 3: Gbp0.7874 2014 Low July 23
SUP 4: Gbp0.7839 Trend line projection June/July lows
