The US employment report and ISM manufacturing will wrap up a busy week. We look for a rise of 250k in total payrolls, a bit higher than consensus of 225k. Joblessclaims and other labour market indicators paint a fairly robust picture of the USlabour market and we look for a rise of 250-300k per month over the coming quarters.The unemployment rate will also be in focus. We expect it to be unchanged at 6.1%following the decline in June from 6.3%. If unemployment continues to decline at therate seen over the past two years, it will hit the Fed’s estimate of long-termunemployment of 5.4% in Q2 next year. Also keep an eye on hourly earnings growthin the employment report. It has remained subdued around 2% for a long time and is asign for the Fed that there is still plenty of slack in the labour market.
We look for the ISM manufacturing index to rise slightly to 56.0 from 55.3. This is inline with consensus and reflects a further slight improvement in US productionsupported by strong consumer goods demand over the past months.
US consumer spending and core PCE deflator will also be in focus. We look for adecent rise in personal spending of 0.5% m/m and for a rise of 0.1% m/m in the corePCE deflation (in line with consensus).
Finally we have final PMI data out of the euro-zone (with more country details) andthe UK releases PMI manufacturing.
In the Scandi markets focus will be on the release of July’s PMI in Sweden and PMIand unemployment in Norway.
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