Consolidation above the 200-WMA combined with O/S daily studies due a correction are a concern for bears with a weekly close below not seen since Sept 2013. Bears continue to look for a close below to add weight to the bearish case. Layers of resistance remain in the $1.3444-1.3577 region with bulls needing a close above $1.3486 to ease bearish pressure and above $1.3577 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and channel top & hint at a bigger bounce.
RES 4: $1.3549 High July 21
RES 3: $1.3513 Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: $1.3485 High July 24
RES 1: $1.3444 High July 28
LPRICE: $1.3432
SUP 1: $1.3419 200-WMA
SUP 2: $1.3400 Low Nov 21 2013
SUP 3: $1.3349 100-WMA
SUP 4: $1.3294 Monthly low Nov 7 2013
GBP/USD continues to find support ahead of the 55-DMA with daily studies noted at O/S levels. Initial resistance remains at the $1.7007 level that previously supported but bulls need to see a close above $1.7053 to ease bearish pressure and a close above the 21-DMA to shift overall focus back to 2014 highs. Bears currently target the long term channel base with below the 55-DMA to add weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: $1.7117 High July 18
RES 3: $1.7093 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.7053 High July 24
RES 1: $1.7007 Low June 27 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.6968
SUP 1: $1.6957 55-DMA
SUP 2: $1.6942 50.0% Fibonacci $1.6696-1.7191
SUP 3: $1.6921 Low June 13 & 18
SUP 4: $1.6902 Rising daily channel base Mar/May/June lows
High daily lows continue as it oscillates around the falling daily channel top with focus remaining on key DMAs. Bulls look for a close above the 200-DMA to provide some breathing room and confirm a break of the falling daily channel top. This sees bullish focus shift to the Y102.26-35 region. The 21-DMA is key support this week with bears needing a close below to reconfirm bearish pressure and see immediate focus shift back to layers of support Y101.07-32.
RES 4: Y102.79 Monthly High June 4
RES 3: Y102.35 High June 18
RES 2: Y102.26 High July 3
RES 1: Y102.10 200-DMA
LPRICE: Y101.96
SUP 1: Y101.82 Hourly support July 29
SUP 2: Y101.64 21-DMA
SUP 3: Y101.32 Low July 23
SUP 4: Y101.16 55-WMA
EUR/JPY managed the first weekly close below the 55-WMA since Nov 2012 last week adding weight to the bearish case. Immediate focus remains on the layers of support clustered in the Y136.06-82 region which includes the 2014 low. Bulls need to see a close above Y137.34 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure whereas a close above the falling daily channel top is needed to hint at further topside, although key moving averages are noted Y138.44-139.79.
RES 4: Y138.44 55-DMA
RES 3: Y137.91 Falling daily channel top
RES 2: Y137.75 21-DMA
RES 1: Y137.34 High July 22, 55-WMA
LPRICE: Y136.94
SUP 1: Y136.82 Hourly support July 29
SUP 2: Y136.63 Low July 25 & 28
SUP 3: Y136.36 Low July 24
SUP 4: Y136.23 2014 Low Feb 4
The 21-DMA and falling wedge top capped last week’s rally confirming their significance with bulls needing a close above Gbp0.7941 to confirm a break and an easing of bearish pressure. Overall bulls continue to look for a close above Gbp0.7982 to confirm an end to bearish hopes and shift focus back to the key Gbp0.8033 level. While the Gbp0.7941 level caps bears retain immediate focus on the falling wedge base and overall focus on 2012 lows.
RES 4: Gbp0.7982 High July 14 & 15
RES 3: Gbp0.7941 High July 24
RES 2: Gbp0.7928 21-DMA
RES 1: Gbp0.7918 High July 28
LPRICE: Gbp0.7911
SUP 1: Gbp0.7904 Low July 28
SUP 2: Gbp0.7874 2014 Low July 23
SUP 3: Gbp0.7861 Falling wedge base
SUP 4: Gbp0.7810 Monthly Low Aug 16 2012
