Fresh 2014 and 8 month lows continued for the euro Friday before the EUR/USD found support at the key 200-WMA with a weekly close below not seen since Sept 2013. Bears continue to look for a close below to add weight to the bearish case. Layers of resistance remain in the $1.3438-1.3564 region with bulls needing a close above $1.3486 to ease bearish pressure and above $1.3564 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and channel top & hint at a bigger bounce.
RES 4: $1.3549 High July 21
RES 3: $1.3513 Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: $1.3485 High July 24
RES 1: $1.3438 Low July 24 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.3426
SUP 1: $1.3421 200-WMA
SUP 2: $1.3400 Low Nov 21 2013
SUP 3: $1.3348 100-WMA
SUP 4: $1.3294 Monthly low Nov 7 2013
The move lower gathered momentum before GBP/USD found support ahead of the 55-DMA. Initial resistance remains at the $1.7007 level that previously supported but bulls need to see a close above $1.7053 to ease bearish pressure and a close above the 21-DMA to shift overall focus back to 2014 highs. Bears currently target the long term channel base with below the 55-DMA needed to add weight to the bearish case and below the 100-DMA to target $1.6693-1.6738.
RES 4: $1.7117 High July 18
RES 3: $1.7099 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.7053 High July 24
RES 1: $1.7007 Low June 27 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.6974
SUP 1: $1.6955 55-DMA
SUP 2: $1.6942 50.0% Fibonacci $1.6696-1.7191
SUP 3: $1.6921 Low June 13 & 18
SUP 4: $1.6896 Rising daily channel base Mar/May/June lows
The recovery from ahead of the 55-WMA continued Friday before stalling ahead of the 100 & 200-DMAs. Bulls look for a close above the 200-DMA to provide breathing room and confirm a break of the falling daily channel top. This sees bullish focus shift to the Y102.26-35 region. The 21-DMA is key support with bears needing a close below to reconfirm pressure and see focus shift back to layers of support Y101.07-32 which includes the 55-WMA.
RES 4: Y102.79 Monthly High June 4
RES 3: Y102.35 High June 18
RES 2: Y102.26 High July 3
RES 1: Y102.08 200-DMA
LPRICE: Y101.80
SUP 1: Y101.61 21-DMA
SUP 2: Y101.32 Low July 23
SUP 3: Y101.16 55-WMA
SUP 4: Y101.07 Low July 10
EUR/JPY managed the first weekly close below the 55-WMA since Nov 2012 last week adding weight to the bearish case. Immediate focus remains on the layers of support clustered in the Y136.11-36 region which includes the 2014 low. Bulls need to see a close above Y137.34 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure whereas a close above the falling daily channel top is needed to hint at further topside, although key moving averages are noted Y138.50-139.84.
RES 4: Y137.99 Falling daily channel top
RES 3: Y137.83 21-DMA
RES 2: Y137.34 High July 22, 55-WMA
RES 1: Y136.97 Previous hourly support now resistance
LPRICE: Y136.70
SUP 1: Y136.36 Low July 24
SUP 2: Y136.23 2014 Low Feb 4
SUP 3: Y136.11 Bollinger band base
SUP 4: Y134.43 Falling daily channel base
The 21-DMA and falling wedge top capped last week’s rally confirming their significance with bulls needing a close above Gbp0.7941 to confirm a break and an easing of bearish pressure. Overall bulls continue to look for a close above Gbp0.7982 to confirm an end to bearish hopes and shift focus back to the key Gbp0.8033 level. While the Gbp0.7941 level caps bears retain immediate focus on the falling wedge base and overall focus on 2012 lows.
RES 4: Gbp0.8023 55-DMA
RES 3: Gbp0.7982 High July 14 & 15
RES 2: Gbp0.7941 High July 24
RES 1: Gbp0.7933 21-DMA
LPRICE: Gbp0.7907
SUP 1: Gbp0.7874 2014 Low July 23
SUP 2: Gbp0.7864 Falling wedge base
SUP 3: Gbp0.7816 Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 4: Gbp0.7810 Monthly Low Aug 16 2012
