EUR/USD is hovering around the $1.3564 support but appears to have done enough to confirm a break of the triangle base with immediate focus having shifted back to the key $1.3503-12 support region. The key concern for the continuation lower is proximity of the Bollinger band base with closes below a rarity and generally unsustainable. Bulls need a close above $1.3587 to ease bearish pressure and above $1.3628 to shift focus higher.
RES 4: $1.3669 Hourly resistance July 2, Ichimoku cloud base
RES 3: $1.3651 High July 10
RES 2: $1.3628 High July 15
RES 1: $1.3587 Hourly support July 15 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.3559
SUP 1: $1.3555 Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $1.3512 Low June 12
SUP 3: $1.3503 Low June 5
SUP 4: $1.3477 2014 Low Feb 3
The bounce from marginally below the 21-DMA ($1.7089) & previous key support at $1.7063 resulted in fresh 2014 and 6 year highs Tuesday but the lack of follow through and subsequent hesitation below $1.7148 is a concern for bulls. Bulls need to see a break of the $1.7198 level and a close above $1.7148 to confirm dominance and shift focus to the $1.7516-1.7626 region. While $1.7148 caps bears will hold out hope for a retest of $1.7059.
RES 4: $1.7217 Bollinger band top
RES 3: $1.7198 High Oct 21 2008
RES 2: $1.7191 2014 High July 15
RES 1: $1.7148 Hourly resistance July 15-16
LPRICE: $1.7133
SUP 1: $1.7059 Low July 15
SUP 2: $1.7007 Low June 27
SUP 3: $1.6999 38.2% Fibonacci $1.6696-1.7191
SUP 4: $1.6948 Low June 25
The recovery from last week’s lows continues with the USD/JPY currently looking to make headway above the 21-DMA (Y101.74). The Y101.95 resistance remains key with bulls looking for a close above to confirm a shift higher in focus to the Y102.35 June 18 high. A close above this level is needed to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to the Y104.13 Apr monthly high. Bears need a close below Y101.66 to reconfirm bearish focus.
RES 4: Y102.35 High June 18
RES 3: Y102.25 Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y101.95 Alternating support/resistance level, 200-DMA
RES 1: Y101.86 High July 9
LPRICE: Y101.75
SUP 1: Y101.65 Hourly support July 16
SUP 2: Y101.41 Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 3: Y101.22 Low July 11
SUP 4: Y101.10 55-WMA, Low July 10
Layers of resistance remain in the Y138.50-139.46 region with bulls needing a close above Y138.76 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and an easing of bearish pressure. Overall a close above the 200-DMA remains needed to shift immediate focus to the Y140.09-19 region where the 100-DMA is located. Immediate focus remains on last week’s low with bears targeting a retest of 2014 lows while Y138.76 caps.
RES 4: Y139.46 200-DMA
RES 3: Y139.22 Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y138.76 High July 9
RES 1: Y138.54 21-DMA
LPRICE: Y137.94
SUP 1: Y137.89 Low July 15
SUP 2: Y137.50 Low July 10
SUP 3: Y137.25 55-WMA
SUP 4: Y137.11 Falling daily trend line projection
After chopping around the 21-DMA Tuesday the EUR/GBP has reversed sharply lower from another failed attempt at the key Gbp0.7980 resistance level on the way to fresh 2014 and two year lows. Bulls now need to see a close above Gbp0.7938 to ease bearish pressure and above Gbp0.7980 to shift focus back to the key Gbp0.8033 level. For now bears dominate with overall focus on the Gbp0.7764 2012 low.
RES 4: Gbp0.8033 High June 25
RES 3: Gbp0.7998 Low July 1 now resistance
RES 2: Gbp0.7980 Hourly resistance July 2
RES 1: Gbp0.7938 Hourly resistance July 15
LPRICE: Gbp0.7912
SUP 1: Gbp0.7911 2014 Low July 15 2014
SUP 2: Gbp0.7902 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: Gbp0.7887 Low Sept 5 2012
SUP 4: Gbp0.7764 2012 Low July 2012
