Recent bullish pressure resulted in a break and close above the 200-DMA on Monday with the ERU/USD now hesitating ahead of the 55-DMA while the Bollinger band top catches up. The 200-DMA is now noted as initial support with bears needing a close below to signal a false break higher. Bulls look for a close above the 55-DMA to support the bullish case but given the proximity of the Bollinger band top, topside follow through may initially be limited.
RES 4: $1.3775 High May 12
RES 3: $1.3748 50.0% Fibonacci 1.3994-1.3503
RES 2: $1.3738 100-DMA
RES 1: $1.3700 55-DMA
LPRICE: $1.3685
SUP 1: $1.3674 200-DMA
SUP 2: $1.3640 Low June 30
SUP 3: $1.3607 Hourly support June 26 & 27
SUP 4: $1.3576 Low June 26
Fresh 2014 and multi-year highs for GBP/USD coupled with a relatively bullish close reconfirm bullish dominance with immediate focus having shifted to the $1.7198 Oct 21 2008 high. Bears now need to see a close back below the previous 2014 high at $1.7063 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure whereas a close below $1.7007 is needed to hint at a deeper correction initially targeting the 21-DMA ($1.6934).
RES 4: $1.7516 High Oct 20 2008
RES 3: $1.7198 High Oct 21 2008
RES 2: $1.7169 Bollinger band top
RES 1: $1.7115 2014 High June 30
LPRICE: $1.7102
SUP 1: $1.7063 Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 2: $1.7007 Low June 27
SUP 3: $1.6971 Low June 26
SUP 4: $1.6953 Low June 25
Although USD/JPY popped above the previous Y101.48 resistance, layers of resistance remain in the Y101.73-102.35 region. Bulls continue to look for a close back above the 200-DMA to ease bearish pressure whereas a close above Y102.35 is needed to end bearish hopes, shifting overall focus back to the Y104.13 Apr monthly high. While the 200-DMA caps immediate focus remains on the Y100.77-82 support region representing 2014 and May monthly lows.
RES 4: Y102.35 High June 18
RES 3: Y102.18 100-DMA, Falling daily trend line
RES 2: Y102.03 21-DMA, 55-DMA
RES 1: Y101.73 200-DMA
LPRICE: Y101.41
SUP 1: Y101.23 Monthly Low June 30
SUP 2: Y101.02 Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 3: Y100.82 Monthly Low May 21
SUP 4: Y100.75 2014 Low Feb 4
EUR/JPY continues to recover from last week’s low’s with the pressure firmly on the 200-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to end bearish hopes and shift focus back to the Y140.09-99 region where the Bollinger band top and Ichimoku cloud are located, although the 55-DMA may slow the move a little. Bears need to see the 200-DMA cap to retain focus on retests of the June monthly low and target the 2014 lows overall.
RES 4: Y139.78 55-DMA
RES 3: Y139.53 38.2% Fibonacci 142.47-137.70
RES 2: Y139.31 High June 10
RES 1: Y139.07 200-DMA
LPRICE: Y138.81
SUP 1: Y138.60 Hourly support June 30
SUP 2: Y137.91 Low June 26
SUP 3: Y137.72 Low June 16
SUP 4: Y136.92 55-WMA
Monday’s rally again ran out of steam ahead of the 21-DMA with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and shift overall focus to the 200-DMA, although there will be plenty of work to do along the way courtesy of the falling daily trend line and 55-DMA. While the 21-DMA caps bears continue to target fresh 2014 lows with overall focus remaining on the Gbp0.7764 2012 lows. The last close above the 21-DMA was seen in late March
RES 4: Gbp0.8128 38.2% Fibonacci 0.8400-0.7960
RES 3: Gbp0.8120 55-DMA
RES 2: Gbp0.8074 Falling daily trend line
RES 1: Gbp0.8033 High June 25, 21-DMA
LPRICE: Gbp0.8000
SUP 1: Gbp0.7998 Low June 30
SUP 2: Gbp0.7959 2014 Low June 16
SUP 3: Gbp0.7923 Low Sept 27 2012, Bollinger band base
SUP 4: Gbp0.7887 Low Sept 5 2012
