EUR/USD looks heavy after topside failure yesterday and it would be surprising NOT to see the pair trading below 1.2983 today… USDindex also failed below and added a bullish print. Over 80.50 would be additionally dollar bullish… The euro also suffers against the pound and EURGBP is headed for the next downside target at 0.8285… Commodity FXers are also exposed again – AUDUSD under 1.0028 would target ~0.9885/70 and USDCAD should turn higher as soon as oil turns lower again. Key however is to show demand above 1.0220\50… EURSEK is still in the grind lower, but not without hesitation. Keep a double 8.9500\9.0150 watch… EURNOK over 7.76 would set sight on a recebnt 7.81 high… EURHUF over 309 would be very bullish, targeting beyond the recent 317.90 peak (broader picture holds ~340\350 possible)… EURPLN is rechecking the high end of an old triangle and should draw support from it. Over resistance pockets at 4.4650 & 4.4800 would show demand and target a fresh high (a broader case holds 4.93 likely)… A false downside break in Bunds yesterday holds the recent top (138.86) in sight… The 10y US note is still in a correctional slide, but ought to find support near the 130-handle… EuroStoxx50 added a bearish print yesterday and downside follow through today would be logical…
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Tech team
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB