EUR/USD: Correction higher has gained traction and the break above the 20 day ma is looking directional. The Elliott wave count on the daily chart is suggesting a rebound to 1.3770 prior to the next swing lower. Intraday dips are indicated to terminate at 1.3575 and currently indications are for a move higher. Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.3677/90 (early June high and Fibo).
Our longer term view remains bearish while we are below 1.40, the Elliott wave count on the daily chart is suggesting that rebounds should not exceed the 1.3775 zone.
USD/JPY: Rebound off the 200 day ma has been pretty tepid. Attention has reverted to the 200 day ma at 101.61 and this guards the 100.75/78 key support – the 2014 low and 55 week ma.
Rallies will find initial resistance at 102.38/42 ( 2 month resistance line) ahead of the 2014 resistance line at 102.95. We currently have no strong bias either way.
GBP/USD: GBP/USD has reached major resistance at 1.7041/51 2 009 high, 2005 low, we would allow for some profit taking to be seen here. We note the 13 count on the daily chart and the TD resistance at 1.7062 both suggest that we should allow for initial failure here. Currently the Elliott wave count is suggesting a retracement to 1.6955/30, while above here we would allow for another stab at the 1.7040/ 65 resistance.
Above 1.7065/75 will trigger a move to the 50% retracement at 1.7331 (of the move down from the 2007 peak). Below 1.6915 would alleviate immediate upside pressure and trigger a sell off to the 7 month support line at 1.6772.
