EUR/USD continues look heavy with lower daily highs weighing, but support remains on approach to the 200-DMA. Bulls now look for a close back above the $1.3688 level to ease the current bearish pressure while a close above the 100-DMA is needed to see focus shift higher. Bulls need the 200-DMA to continue to support on dips with a close above the 100-DMA to support their case. A close below the 200-DMA sees bears targeting $1.3477
RES 4: $1.3793 21-DMA
RES 3: $1.3775 High May 12
RES 2: $1.3737 100-DMA
RES 1: $1.3688 Hourly resistance May 22
LPRICE: $1.3650
SUP 1: $1.3637 200-DMA
SUP 2: $1.3606 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 3: $1.3563 Low Feb 12
SUP 4: $1.3477 2014 low Feb 3
Since closing back above the 21-DMA cable has found support on dips around this level and combined with correcting O/S daily studies sees bulls targeting fresh 2014 highs. In saying that, bulls need a close above the $1.6820 level to reconfirm bullish pressure. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and see the key $1.6737-40 region targeted where the rising channel base and 55-DMA are located.
RES 4: $1.6996 2014 High May 6
RES 3: $1.6962 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 2: $1.6875 High May 14
RES 1: $1.6920 High May 21
LPRICE: $1.6869
SUP 1: $1.6858 21-DMA
SUP 2: $1.6802 Low May 20
SUP 3: $1.6782 Hourly support May 16
SUP 4: $1.6740 Rising daily trend line
The lack of follow through on dips below the 200-DMA is a concern, especially when combined with relatively O/S daily tech studies. The move lower found support ahead of the 2014 low with the recovery pausing ahead of layers of key moving averages. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of the current bearish pressure. Bears look for a close below the 200-DMA and fresh 2014 lows to reconfirm bearish pressure and target sub Y100 levels.
RES 4: Y103.02 High May 2
RES 3: Y102.52 100-DMA
RES 2: Y102.24 55-DMA
RES 1: Y101.92 21-DMA
LPRICE: Y101.74
SUP 1: Y101.69 Hourly support May 23
SUP 2: Y101.34 Hourly support May 21
SUP 3: Y100.75 2014 low Feb 4
SUP 4: Y100.45 High Nov 15 2013 now support
The recovery from the 200-DMA combined with correcting oversold daily tech studies is a worry for bears. In saying that, bulls still need a close above the Y139.33 May 20 high to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and a close above Y140.99 to see bulls targeting Y142.47. While the Y139.33 level caps, bears continue to target the 200-DMA with a close below seeing 2014 lows become the focal point.
RES 4: Y140.59 21-DMA
RES 3: Y140.32 Hourly resistance May 13
RES 2: Y139.33 High May 20
RES 1: Y139.13 High May 22
LPRICE: Y138.79
SUP 1: Y138.64 Hourly support Apr 22
SUP 2: Y138.17 200-DMA
SUP 3: Y136.23 2014 low Feb 4
SUP 4: Y134.10 Low Nov 20 2013
EUR/GBP consolidated Wednesday’s break lower, marginally trading at fresh 2014 lows again and remaining heavy. Gbp0.8119 remains initial resistance with bulls needing a close above to relieve the immediate bearish pressure. Bulls still need to see a close above the Gbp0.8191 level to end bearish hopes and see immediate focus shift higher to the 55 & 100-DMA’s around Gbp0.8252. For now bearish focus targeting sub Gbp0.8000 levels remain favoured.
RES 4: Gbp0.8191 Low Feb 28 now resistance
RES 3: Gbp0.8182 21-DMA
RES 2: Gbp0.8159 High May 19
RES 1: Gbp0.8119 Previous 2014 Low now resistance
LPRICE: Gbp0.0.8088
SUP 1: Gbp0.8083 2014 Low May 22
SUP 2: Gbp0.8035 Low Dec 10 2012
SUP 3: Gbp0.8005 Low Nov 21 2012
SUP 4: Gbp0.7960 Monthly low Nov 8 2012
