It’s been another dull session for the euro this morning after it opened at $1.3875. It started the session with some sporadic dips to $1.3872 but generally held above $1.3870 through the opening hours. It broke higher and got up to $1.3881 high in the late morning here but there has been hardly any follow-through interest since. The ECB policy meeting due on Thursday is likely to be the main event risk for the euro this week, and market positioning suggests a reluctance to push the euro too far into $1.3900 territory ahead of that. Euro-dollar held near the high ahead of the European open, and was last at $1.3883. Offers are seen in good amount, at $1.3890 to $1.3910, more toward $1.3930. On the downside, demand is seen at $1.3850, larger bids building below at $1.3825/15. Stops are also noted building below $1.3850 but bears continue to look for an elusive close below the 21-day moving average at $1.3838 to easebullish pressure and a close below last week’s $1.3771 low to shift focus lower to the $1.3673-1.3731 region. Topside stops are noted above $1.3905 with a break higher to likely targets the $1.3948-67 region while the $1.3830-58 region supports.
