In the euro-area a number of interesting data are due for release. Germany releasesCPI for April, starting with the first Länder CPI at 09:00 CET (Saxony). The overallnumber is scheduled for 14:00 CET. We expect to see a rise from 0.9% in March to1.3% in April (in line with consensus). The timing of Easter pulled the March numberlower and will lift April inflation, as prices for package holidays, hotels andrestaurants get a boost during Easter.
Euro money and credit data are expected to continue to look soft. M3 growth isexpected to have risen 1.4% in March close to the low level of 1.3% in February(much below ECB’s old reference rate of 4.5%, which it has stopped referring to inthe past years). Credit should pick up gradually during this year as lending standardsare expected to be eased slightly but it may be too soon to see this already. Ultimatelyhigher credit growth, though, is needed to push the euro recovery to the next level.
ECB will release the allocation on the 7-day MRO, which is important in order to seeif the banks are drawing more liquidity following the recent decline in excessliquidity. If so, it should ease the pressure on short-term EONIA rates.
In the US consumer confidence from Conference Board is expected to rise to 84.0from 82.3. As suggested by consumer confidence from University of Michiganhouseholds are getting more optimistic after the dip over the winter months. Keep aneye on the labour market component ‘jobs plentiful versus jobs hard to get’. It is notfar from the long-term average and suggests a tighter labour market than what widerunemployment measures are showing.
In the Scandi markets focus will be on Swedish consumer and business sentimentsurveys by NIER for April.
Read the full report: FX Daily
Danske Bank