The Yen continues to coil but a limiting force for the pro-flight to quality crowd was seen with a sharp rise inJapanese retail sales of 11% relative to year ago levels. In fact, large scale Japanese retail sales increased by16% in March over year ago levels. While we can’t rule out a rally back to the early April highs, the overall trendmight begin to unfold on the downside in the event that the Ukrainian situation calms down, the US Fed providesfresh confidence and or Chinese numbers this week confirm slow but positive growth.
Technical Outlook: The cross over and close above the 60-day moving average is an indicationthe longer-term trend has turned positive. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate amove lower if support levels are taken out. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture.The next downside target is 97.36. The next area of resistance is around 98.19 and 98.41, while 1st support hitstoday at 97.67 and below there at 97.36.