The Dollar remains under pressure in the wake of data flows that have generally disappointed thecurrency trade. With the US Fed scheduled to release a statement on Wednesday some players think they willprobably acknowledge the uneven and unimpressive US recovery and that has seemingly fostered fears of apause in tapering. We doubt the Fed will pause its tapering, but we wouldn’t rule out dovish talk to cushioneconomic sentiment against further tapering. Prior to the FOMC statement release, the markets will be presentedwith Chicago Fed Midwest manufacturing, Pending Home sales, Texas manufacturing, Case-Shiller, Consumerconfidence, ADP employment, Advance 1s Qtr GDP and a Chicago PMI report! The Commitments of TradersFutures and Options report as of April 22nd for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 1,634contracts, an increase of 1,068 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 4,834 contracts, an increase of58 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 6,468 contracts, an increase of 1,126 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 4,834 contracts. This represents anincrease of 58 contracts in the net long position held by these traders. Little support is seen until the early Aprillows of 79.43 and perhaps not until 79.38.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. Themarket’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Themarket’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at79.10. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance isaround 79.61 and 79.84, while 1st support hits today at 79.25 and below there at 79.10.