German IFO expectations are due for release and we expect a decline for a thirdconsecutive month although the level is set to remain high. The current assessmentcomponent is likely to continue to increase and our forecast is above consensus.
ECB’s President Draghi speaks today and it will be interesting to hear whether hedraws attention to the better European growth outlook after the composite PMIincreased to the highest level in almost three years. Recently ECB members includingDraghi have been very dovish and highlighted the risks of a too prolonged period oflow inflation which the ECB is ready to use unconventional instruments to cope with.
US data have generally been stronger than expected and we forecast another aboveconsensusprint when durable goods orders are released today. The orders declinedrelatively sharply due to the cold winter but started to rebound in February.
The positive trend in US data is also seen in initial jobless claims, which havedeclined to the lowest level since 2007 considering a four-week moving average.Today consensus is for a rise to 315K from 304K last week.
Focus will be on Q1 earnings with 65 companies in the S&P 500 index reporting.
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Danske Bank