The EUR/USD headed lower to start the new week before pausing just ahead of the 21-DMA. The pullback has eased the bullish pressure that dominated last week but bears still need a close below the $1.3779 level needed to confirm a break lower and shift overall focus back to the $1.3673 Apr 4 low. Initial resistance is now at $1.3834 but bulls need a close back above Monday’s $1.3863 high to reconfirm bullish pressure and target $1.3948-67
RES 4: $1.3948 High Mar 17
RES 3: $1.3905 High Apr 11
RES 2: $1.3863 High Apr 14
RES 1: $1.3833 Hourly resistance Apr 15
LPRICE: $1.3815
SUP 1: $1.3799 21-DMA
SUP 2: $1.3779 Low Apr 9
SUP 3: $1.3750 High Apr 7 now support
SUP 4: $1.3722 50.0% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3967
The pullback from just short of 2014 highs is of some concern to bulls especially when combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/B levels. The dip back towards $1.6684 to start the new week eased bullish pressure but bears continue to look for a close below $1.6684 to see focus shift lower to layers of support in the $1.6555-1.6628 region. Bulls need a close above $1.6749 to shift focus back to the 2014 high.
RES 4: $1.6878 Monthly high Nov 16 2009
RES 3: $1.6822 2014 high Feb 17
RES 2: $1.6792 Hourly resistance Apr 10
RES 1: $1.6749 Hourly resistance Apr 11
LPRICE: $1.6715
SUP 1: $1.6684 High Mar 31 now support
SUP 2: $1.6628 21-DMA
SUP 3: $1.6605 55-DMA
SUP 4: $1.6576 Rising daily channel base
The close above Y101.86 relieved the pressure on the key Y100.75-101.20 region but bulls need to see a close above Y102.47 to shift immediate focus to the Y103.10 level. Solid resistance remains in the Y102.16-47 region including key moving averages and while it caps bears continue to target retests of the Y100.75-101.20 region. The 200-DMA is noted at Y100.82 with a close below last seen early Oct 2013 and then Nov 2012 prior to that.
RES 4: Y103.10 High Apr 8
RES 3: Y102.95 100-DMA
RES 2: Y102.47 Alternating daily support/resistance, 21-DMA
RES 1: Y102.16 High Apr 9
LPRICE: Y101.84
SUP 1: Y101.66 Hourly support Apr 14
SUP 2: Y101.32 Low Apr 10
SUP 3: Y101.20 Low Mar 14
SUP 4: Y100.82 200-DMA
After having remained capped at the 21-DMA last week the EUR/JPY is pausing ahead of the key Y139.96 support with the 50% Fibonacci and rising daily trend line noted just above. Bulls need to see a close above the 21-DMA to relieve the pressure on Y139.96 whereas a close above the key Y141.96 level is needed to shift overall focus back to Y143.45-78. Daily tech studies are approaching O/S levels and will come into play on a close above the 21-DMA.
RES 4: Y142.88 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 3: Y141.96 Alternating daily support/resistance
RES 2: Y141.46 21-DMA
RES 1: Y140.93 High Apr 14
LPRICE: Y140.75
SUP 1: Y140.26 Rising daily trend line
SUP 2: Y140.02 50.0% Fibonacci 136.28-143.77
SUP 3: Y139.96 Low Mar 28
SUP 4: Y139.14 61.8% Fibonacci 136.28-143.77
Layers of resistance are clustered in the Gbp0.8299-36 region including key moving averages, previous daily highs/lows and Fibonacci retracements of the Mar-Apr move. It is also worth noting that despite spikes above the 55-DMA the pair has failed to close above. Daily studies are correcting from O/S which are supportive of further attempts higher but bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to build a platform and target Gbp0.8299-0.8336
RES 4: Gbp0.8336 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8400-0.8232
RES 3: Gbp0.8323 High Mar 27
RES 2: Gbp0.8299 21-DMA
RES 1: Gbp0.8278 55-DMA
LPRICE: Gbp0.8264
SUP 1: Gbp0.8252 Low Apr 14 now support
SUP 2: Gbp0.8231 Low Apr 9
SUP 3: Gbp0.8205 Monthly low Mar 5
SUP 4: Gbp0.8192 Low Feb 28
