The 21-DMA failures have resulted in a dip back towards the 100-DMA with bulls now needing a close above the $1.3753 level to ease bearish pressure, while a close above the 21-DMA remains needed to shift focus back to the key $1.3879 level. While the 21-DMA caps, bears will look for a break of the 100-DMA and a move lower that targets the $1.3556-1.3604 region. Daily studies remain O/S and the only negative for a continuation lower
RES 4: $1.3847 Hourly resistance Mar 25
RES 3: $1.3821 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.3753 Daily low 3 now resistance
RES 1: $1.3724 Hourly resistance Apr 4
LPRICE: $1.3710
SUP 1: $1.3688 100-DMA
SUP 2: $1.3665 61.8% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3966
SUP 3: $1.3643 Low Feb 27
SUP 4: $1.3604 Rising daily trend line off Nov monthly low
The break and close below the 21-DMA confirms the renewed bearish pressure that is now targeting the rising daily channel base off the Nov monthly low around $1.6530 today. Layers of support remain just below in the $1.6453-81 region with a close below needed to see focus shift lower to a retest of the $1.6252 Feb monthly low. Bulls now look for a close above $1.6618 to ease the current bearish pressure and above $1.6684 to shift overall focus higher.
RES 4: $1.6684 High Mar 31
RES 3: $1.6664 High Apr 2
RES 2: $1.6618 Low Apr 1 now resistance
RES 1: $1.6598 Hourly resistance Apr 4
LPRICE: $1.6585
SUP 1: $1.6530 Rising channel base off Nov monthly low
SUP 2: $1.6481 100-DMA
SUP 3: $1.6465 Monthly low Mar 24
SUP 4: $1.6453 38.2% Fibonacci 1.5856-1.6822
USDJPY continues to make gains following on from the close above the falling daily trend line off 2014 highs on Monday. Bulls focus is on a continuation higher that initially targets the Y104.92-105.44 region, although the 21 day upper Bollinger band appears to be slowing the gains a little. Bears need to see a close below Y103.58 to ease the immediate bullish pressure while a close below Y102.80 is needed to shift overall focus lower once more.
RES 4: Y105.27 21 week upper Bollinger band
RES 3: Y104.92 High Jan 16
RES 2: Y104.23 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: Y104.11 High Apr 3
LPRICE: Y103.89
SUP 1: Y103.81 Hourly support Apr 3
SUP 2: Y103.58 Low Apr 2
SUP 3: Y103.05 Low Apr 1
SUP 4: Y102.80 Low Mar 3
The failure of EUR/JPY to retest the Mar monthly high and the resulting dip calls into question a bullish continuation. The close below the previous support at Y142.72 eased the bullish pressure with bears now looking for a close below the Y141.96 level to confirm a deeper correction is underway and shift focus to the Y139.96 Mar 28 low. Bulls now need to see a close back above Y142.67 to see immediate focus shift back to the Y143.47-79 region
RES 4: Y144.38 Low Dec 31 now resistance
RES 3: Y143.79 High Mar 7
RES 2: Y143.47 High Apr 3
RES 1: Y142.67 Hourly resistance Apr 3
LPRICE: Y142.50
SUP 1: Y141.96 Previous daily resistance now support
SUP 2: Y141.25 Hourly support Mar 28
SUP 3: Y141.03 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 4: Y140.82 100-DMA
EUR/GBP briefly traded above the 100-DMA before heading back towards the 61.8% Fibonacci support and closing on a relatively bearish note. The Gbp0.8240-51 support region remains key although with the 21 day lower Bolli at Gbp0.8240 downside moves may initially lack follow through. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to ease the bearish pressure while a close above Gbp0.8330 is needed to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus higher
RES 4: Gbp0.8367 Hourly resistance Mar 25
RES 3: Gbp0.8330 Low Mar 20 now resistance
RES 2: Gbp0.8323 High Mar 27
RES 1: Gbp0.8306 100-DMA
LPRICE: Gbp0.8267
SUP 1: Gbp0.8251 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8159-0.8400
SUP 2: Gbp0.8240 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 3: Gbp0.8205 Monthly low Mar 5
SUP 4: Gbp0.8192 Low Feb 28
