The correction lower from ahead of the $1.3948-66 region Thursday saw the EUR/USD break and close below the rising daily channel base and 21-DMA. Tuesday’s failure to surmount the $1.3847 resistance level on the sharp bounce from $1.3749 adds weight to the bearish case with a close above $1.3879 needed to ease bearish pressure. While $1.3879 caps further tests of $1.3749 are expected with a close below confirming bearish focus.
RES 4: $1.3966 2014 high Mar 13
RES 3: $1.3948 High Mar 17
RES 2: $1.3879 Low Mar 17 & 18 now resistance
RES 1: $1.3845 Hourly resistance Mar 25
LPRICE: $1.3808
SUP 1: $1.3749 Low Mar 20 & 25
SUP 2: $1.3722 50.0% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3966
SUP 3: $1.3706 55-DMA
SUP 4: $1.3665 61.8% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3966
The bounce from the rising daily trend line off Nov monthly lows sees GBP/USD needing to close above the $1.6570 Mar 20 high to confirm a break of the 55-DMA, Mar 25 high and falling daily channel top off the Mar 7 high. This would ease bearish pressure and see immediate focus shift higher to the $1.6714 Mar 13 high. Bears need to see cable remain capped ahead of $1.6570 and a close below $1.6456 to confirm bearish focus and target 2014 lows.
RES 4: $1.6714 High Mar 13
RES 3: $1.6622 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.6604 Hourly resistance Mar 19
RES 1: $1.6570 High Mar 20
LPRICE: $1.6524
SUP 1: $1.6484 Rising daily trend line
SUP 2: $1.6456 Low Mar 24
SUP 3: $1.6439 100-DMA
SUP 4: $1.6384 Low Feb 10
Consolidation below Y102.68 is becoming a concern for bulls with a close above needed to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (102.61) and 100-DMA (102.60), reconfirming bullish focus, and seeing immediate focus shift to a retest of the Y103.09-79 region. Bears continue to look for a close below Y101.94 that previously capped to see bearish pressure take hold and target the key Y100.75-101.20 support region and then the key 200-DMA below.
RES 4: Y103.09 High Mar 12
RES 3: Y102.87 Hourly resistance Mar 13
RES 2: Y102.68 High Mar 19
RES 1: Y102.49 High Mar 25
LPRICE: Y102.30
SUP 1: Y101.94 High Mar 18 now support
SUP 2: Y101.20 Low Mar 3 & 14
SUP 3: Y100.75 2014 low Feb 4
SUP 4: Y100.59 200-DMA
Repeated failures ahead of the Y142.00-24 region after the correction lower from the Y143.78 Mar 7 high continue to see a bearish bias favoured with a close below the Y140.45 support needed to reconfirm. A break lower then sees bearish focus shift to a retest of the Y138.81 low from Feb 27 and overall focus to 2014 lows. A close above Y142.24 is needed to end bearish aspirations and see focus shift back to Y143.78 with the upper Bolli just below.
RES 4: Y143.34 Hourly resistance Mar 11
RES 3: Y142.24 Low Mar 12 now resistance
RES 2: Y141.97 High Mar 17 & 18
RES 1: Y141.54 Hourly resistance Mar 25
LPRICE: Y141.28
SUP 1: Y140.66 55-DMA
SUP 2: Y140.45 Low Mar 14
SUP 3: Y140.02 50.0% Fibonacci 136.28-143.77
SUP 4: Y138.81 Low Feb 27
The failure to take out last week’s 2014 high on Monday and Tuesday’s attempts higher, combined with correcting O/B daily studies is adding weight to the bearish case. Bears look for a close below Gbp0.8322 to shift focus back to the 55-DMA and 50% Fibo level at Gbp0.8280 with a close below then seeing the Gbp0.8159-0.8205 region targeted. Bulls need a close at fresh 2014 highs to kick start bullish momentum and above the 200-DMA to focus higher.
RES 4: Gbp0.8422 200-DMA
RES 3: Gbp0.8410 High Dec 25
RES 2: Gbp0.8400 2014 high Mar 18
RES 1: Gbp0.8367 Hourly resistance Mar 25
LPRICE: Gbp0.8354
SUP 1: Gbp0.8322 Low Mar 11
SUP 2: Gbp0.8301 High Mar 7 now support
SUP 3: Gbp0.8280 50.0% Fibonacci 0.8159-0.8400
SUP 4: Gbp0.8247 High Mar 5 now support
