The sharp move lower on Wednesday sliced through layers of support before stalling just short of the 21-DMA. Bulls will now be looking for a close above the $1.3879 level that previously supported on attempts lower Monday and Tuesday to shift focus back to 2014 highs. Bears now look for a close below the rising daily channel base to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and see focus shift lower to retests of the 55-DMA
RES 4: $1.3967 2014 high Mar 13
RES 3: $1.3948 High Mar 17
RES 2: $1.3879 Low Mar 17 & 18 now resistance
RES 1: $1.3835 Hourly resistance Mar 20
LPRICE: $1.3833 @0530GMT
SUP 1: $1.3808 21-DMA
SUP 2: $1.3795 Rising daily channel base
SUP 3: $1.3779 38.2% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3966
SUP 4: $1.3691 55-DMA
The close below the 55-DMA has given the bears comfort and now initially targets a retest of the $1.6384-1.6474 region where key supports are noted. Bulls now look for a close above the 55-DMA to ease the current bearish pressure while a close above the 21-DMA is needed to hint at further topside with a close above Mar 13 highs confirming. Daily studies are looking a little oversold which will come into play on a close above the 55-DMA.
RES 4: $1.6718 High Mar 13
RES 3: $1.6651 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.6604 Hourly resistance Mar 19
RES 1: $1.6548 55-DMA
LPRICE: $1.6537 @0530GMT
SUP 1: $1.6471 61.8% Fibonacci 1.6255-1.6823
SUP 2: $1.6458 Rising daily trend line, falling daily channel base
SUP 3: $1.6419 100-DMA
SUP 4: $1.6384 Low Feb 10
USD/JPY moved sharply higher on Wednesday, breaking above Y101.94, the 21-DMA (Y102.28) and the 100-DMA (Y102.45) with the 100-DMA seen capping for the majority of Asian trading. Bears now look for a close back below Y101.94 to signal a false break higher and see immediate focus shift back to the Y100.75-20 region. While Y101.94 supports potential exists for a retest of the Y103.70-80 region with immediate focus on the 55-DMA.
RES 4: Y103.41 High Mar 11
RES 3: Y103.09 High Mar 12
RES 2: Y102.87 Hourly resistance Mar 13
RES 1: Y102.78 55-DMA
LPRICE: Y102.30 @0530GMT
SUP 1: Y101.94 High Mar 18 now support
SUP 2: Y101.20 Low Mar 3 & 14
SUP 3: Y100.75 2014 low Feb 4
SUP 4: Y100.40 200-DMA
Yet another failure ahead of Y142.00 is a concern for bulls looking for a break above Y142.24 and a retest of the Y143.75-80 region. Bulls continue to take comfort in the bounce from the rising daily channel base with a close below the Mar 14 low needed to confirm a break lower, initially targeting the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the Feb-Mar move (Y140.02) and the100-DMA (Y139.90), then the Y138.72 low from Feb 12
RES 4: Y143.56 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 3: Y143.34 Hourly resistance Mar 11
RES 2: Y142.24 Low Mar 12 now resistance
RES 1: Y141.97 High Mar 17 & 18
LPRICE: Y141.52 @0530GMT
SUP 1: Y141.13 Rising daily channel base
SUP 2: Y140.74 55-DMA
SUP 3: Y140.45 Low Mar 14
SUP 4: Y140.02 50.0% Fibonacci 136.28-143.77
The close below Gbp0.8361 Wednesday was enough to ease the previous bullish pressure and hint at a correction that initially targets the 100-DMA. Bears still need a close below the 100-DMA to end bullish aspirations and see focus shift lower to the Gbp0.8159-0.8205 region. Correcting O/B daily study are a concern for bulls and may limit topside follow through with bulls needing a close above Gbp0.8376 to hint at a resumption in the up-trend.
RES 4: Gbp0.8424 200-DMA
RES 3: Gbp0.8410 High Dec 25
RES 2: Gbp0.8400 2014 high Mar 18
RES 1: Gbp0.8376 Hourly resistance Mar 19
LPRICE: Gbp0.8365 @0530GMT
SUP 1: Gbp0.8341 Low Mar 17
SUP 2: Gbp0.8317 100-DMA
SUP 3: Gbp0.8301 High Mar 7 now support
SUP 4: Gbp0.8293 21-DMA
