The bounce from ahead of the $1.3824 support on Friday further confirms the significance of the $1.3824-46 region in regards to a continuatio higher that currently has the bulls targeting the $1.4199-1.4247 region with the major concern being O/B studies. Bears look for a close below $1.3824 to hint at a deeper correction with focus initially shifting to the rising daily channel base and 21-DMA and then the $1.3644-95 region below
R 4: $1.4199 High Oct 28 2011
R 3: $1.3985 Rising daily channel top
R 2: $1.3967 2014 high Mar 13
R 1: $1.3938 High Mar 14
LP: $1.3900
S 1: $1.3846 Low Mar 14
S 2: $1.3824 High Feb 28 now support
S 3: $1.3789 21-DMA
S 4: $1.3765 Rising daily channel base
Last Thursday’s move higher lacked follow through with the failure to close above the 21-DMA hinting at further downside. Bears look for a close below the 55-DMA ($1.6546) to confirm and see focus shift to retests of the 100-DMA and then the 2014 low at $1.6252. A close above $1.6650 is needed to hint at further topside and above $1.6718 confirms a break of the 21-DMA and sees bulls targeting 2014 highs.
R 4: $1.6742 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: $1.6718 High Mar 13
R 2: $1.6670 21-DMA
R 1: $1.6650 Alternating hourly support/resistance
LP: $1.6637
S 1: $1.6588 Low Mar 14
S 2: $1.6568 Low Mar 12
S 3: $1.6538 50.0% Fibonacci 1.6255-1.6823
S 4: $1.6471 61.8% Fibonacci 1.6255-1.6823
USD/JPY paused at the Y101.20 level Friday with the Y100.75-101.20 region key to immediate direction. While the 21-DMA caps bears are targeting a break of Y100.75 that then sees immediate focus shifts to the key 200-DMA with a close below last seen in late Oct. Initial resistance is noted on the hourlies at Y101.87 with a close above needed to ease bearish pressure while bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to target the Y103.75-85 region.
R 4: Y102.87 Hourly resistance Mar 13
R 3: Y102.29 21-DMA
R 2: Y102.12 Daily low Mar 5 now resistance
R 1: Y101.87 Hourly resistance Mar 14
LP: Y101.40
S 1: Y101.20 Low Mar 3 & 14, 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 2: Y100.75 2014 low Feb 4
S 3: Y100.35 200-DMA
S 4: Y99.97 61.8% Fibonacci 96.59-105.44
Daily studies continue to correct from O/B levels with Friday’s move lower bouncing off the rising daily channel base that comes in around Y140.68 today. Bears look for a close below Friday’s low to confirm a break of the channel and see focus shift lower to the Y138.68-139.69 region. A close above Y141.51 is needed to ease bearish pressure while bulls look for a close above Y142.24 to shift overall focus higher.
R 4: Y143.46 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: Y143.34 Hourly resistance Mar 11
R 2: Y142.24 Low Mar 12 now resistance
R 1: Y141.51 High Mar 14
LP: Y141.04
S 1: Y140.68 Rising daily channel base
S 2: Y140.41 Low Mar 14
S 3: Y139.69 100-DMA
S 4: Y138.68 Low Feb 12
The lack of follow through with O/B daily studies remains of some concern for the bullish continuation that is targeting the Gbp0.8410-25 region. Bears continue to look for a close below Gbp0.8321 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA, seeing focus turn bearish and hint at a deeper correction that targets the 21 and 55-DMA’s. A close at fresh 2014 highs remains needed to reconfirm bullish focus.
R 4: Gbp0.8425 200-DMA
R 3: Gbp0.8410 High Dec 25
R 2: Gbp0.8380 2014 high Mar 14
R 1: Gbp0.8365 Hourly resistance Mar 17
LP: Gbp0.8354
S 1: Gbp0.8350 Hourly support Mar 17
S 2: Gbp0.8321 Low Mar 11, 100-DMA
S 3: Gbp0.8301 High Mar 7 now support
S 4: Gbp0.8270 55-DMA, 21. DMA, 50% Fibo 0.8159-0.8378
